January 14, 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis: Last night, the Bitcoin price fell and broke below the neckline but did not continue the downward trend. Instead, it quickly rebounded above the neckline, and trading volume continued to expand, with buying power significantly strengthening. This phenomenon aligns with the spring effect in volume-price analysis and is a typical bullish pattern in a bull market.

The expected value of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 2.9%, and this expectation may have already been reflected in yesterday's significant drop. As long as the CPI data released on Wednesday does not deviate significantly from the expected value, the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing to decline sharply is relatively low. Therefore, it can be inferred that the possibility of Bitcoin's 'head and shoulders' pattern failing is quite high.

However, the large trading volume during yesterday's drop indicates that there are still many unstable chips in the market. Additionally, the current funding situation and the buying conditions of Bitcoin ETFs are not optimistic, so the timing for a real Bitcoin increase may not yet be ripe.

Subsequent Bitcoin market trends may exhibit the following two scenarios:
Situation One: If the U.S. December CPI data released tomorrow night meets expectations, under this circumstance, the probability of Bitcoin falling below the neckline again is low, and it may even test the neckline position again, thereby forming a small 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern.
Situation Two: If the U.S. December CPI data is significantly higher than expected, it may trigger market expectations for interest rate hikes, and Bitcoin will likely fall below $90,000 again, possibly even breaking below yesterday's lowest price. From the rebound volume of Bitcoin after last night's false breakdown, the market seems to be leaning more towards the likelihood of this situation occurring.

Bitcoin is currently mainly in a state of high-level consolidation, however, many altcoins have dropped back to near their initial price levels. If the decline cannot be stopped at the current position and continues to explore lower levels, it will undoubtedly lead to a brutal crash in the altcoin market.

However, as the saying goes, one must break before one can stand. I actually look forward to this large-scale washout happening sooner rather than later. I have been monitoring several tokens that I am ready to invest fully in. If Bitcoin really falls to the price range of 77000 - 75000, I will decisively invest everything!

After the double bottom test, there are now signs of stabilization and rebound. At this point, you can consider entering the market, with considerable profit expectations. Initial position building: enter at the current price down to the 1.2 price range; additional buying opportunity: operate in the 1.1 to 1.08 range.

Target price one is set around 1.36, and target price two is in the 1.5 to 1.6 range. If you have concerns, it's advisable to wait until the evening data is released for a reassessment.

Please note that for all cryptocurrencies involving stocks, unless specifically mentioned, the maximum hard stop-loss limit is 20%.

Once the additional buying is completed, wait for the price to rise near the cost price and sell half of the position. This strategy is applicable to all cryptocurrencies.

#比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调

My logic is actually very simple. The bull market is not over.

New highs will still be reached this month. Others, not to mention ETH and DOGE, have not even reached their new highs. Do you think the bull market is over?

This does not conform to my logic. I will continue to buy Dogecoin at 0.05.

I still own it now. I don’t believe I can’t reach 1 dollar.

#加密市场回调 #比特币价格走势分析

Don't think that only this year's market is bad; in 2017, when Old Trump first took office, it was also bad. From January to March, it fluctuated 30% before really taking off. Will history repeat itself?
#美国非农数据即将公布 #比特币价格走势分析

Brothers, there are quite a few important events coming up, everyone needs to be prepared.

On the 9th, there is a monetary policy meeting,
On the 10th, non-farm payroll data will be released,
On the 11th, SpaceX's Starship is scheduled for its seventh orbital test flight,
On the 15th, CPI data will be released,
On the 20th, Trump will be sworn in,
On the 25th, it is said that X will enable DOGE payments,
On the 30th, there will also be an interest rate decision announcement.

#加密市场回调 #DeFAI热点

2025-01-08 Wednesday Daily News (Selected)

1. Musk revealed that the X platform will not use cryptocurrency as a payment method in the near future.

2. The new Orb will be equipped with the latest NVIDIA Jetson chipset, boosting product performance.

3. Grayscale's parent company DCG has transformed into a training and validation node for the decentralized AI training platform FLock.io.

4. The chairman of the U.S. CFTC will step down on the day of Trump's inauguration, and the position is about to undergo changes.

5. According to Polymarket data, the probability of betting on Trump creating a Bitcoin asset reserve within 100 days of taking office is 33%.

6. In 2024, trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong surpassed 5 billion HKD, with OSL partners estimating nearly 90% market share.

7. Trump met with Ripple's CEO and legal officer at Mar-a-Lago on Monday, but it's unclear what they discussed.

8. A Bitcoin investor has been asked to hand over the private key for crypto assets worth 124 million USD, drawing attention.

9. Bitfinex derivatives have obtained a startup license for digital asset services in El Salvador, with business expansion expected.

10. U.S. listed company SUNation Energy claims to adopt a Bitcoin financial strategy, beginning a new experiment.

11. The listed company Thumzup purchased 1 million USD in Bitcoin and will also use Bitcoin to pay part of its employees' salaries.

12. This morning, the USDC Treasury minted 100 million USDC on the Ethereum mainnet, a significant amount.

#本轮牛市周期预期 #加密市场回调

The most important trend line for this rebound, if it holds, the bull market is still very safe.

$USDT.D

Important event this week: Friday's employment data.

4.2% or below
📈

4.3% small adjustment or sideways
4.4% larger adjustment
📉
#BTC重返10万 #币安MegadropSOLV

1.07 Morning Brief | BTC and On-Chain Support the Crypto Skyline

1. Crypto Focus: BTC's Glory Returns, Once Again Reaching the Peak of $100,000! However, many altcoins struggle to regain their former glory and may find it difficult to return to the price levels they touched when BTC first broke $100,000, leading to increased market differentiation.

2. Correlation Effects Highlighted: As expected, ETH falls in tandem with BTC's rise, showing a declining trend in its exchange rate, while mainstream coins struggle to keep pace with the surge of BTC.

3. Coordinated Oscillation Upward: SOL closely follows BTC's pace, steadily climbing in the turbulence and cautiously expanding its path forward.

4. Seizing Opportunities: BNB rides the wave of BTC's rise; without timely official announcements of good news, its current momentum may be difficult to sustain, leaving its future direction uncertain.

5. Emergence of New Forces: The AIAgent project, led by SWARMS and AI16Z, continues to gain momentum, charging forward like an arrow, bravely exploring new heights for the future.

6. Compliance Dynamics: Gemini spends $5 million to settle with the U.S. CFTC, successfully calming the lawsuit storm and adding a footnote for industry compliance.

7. Market Outlook: Arthur Hayes boldly predicts that driven by RRP and TGA fund flows, the crypto market is expected to hit short-term peaks in the first quarter of 2024.

8. New Institutional Moves: Nasdaq applies to raise the IBIT position limit to 250,000, an action worth noting in the crypto circle.

9. Public Chain Dark Horse: Sui's TVL impressively breaks through the $2 billion mark, with a six-month increase of up to 1800%, earning the title of a “rocket” in development.

10. Capital Operations: MicroStrategy unveils a $2 billion preferred stock plan, precisely targeting institutional investors to strengthen market positioning.

11. Acts of Kindness Praised: Vitalik Buterin once again sells memecoins to donate to charity, living up to the “lying profit” legend, giving back to society through good deeds.

12. Product Innovation: Asset management company Calamos is set to launch its first 100% downside protection Bitcoin ETF, showcasing innovative prowess.

13. Capital Influx: CoinShares reveals a surge in fund inflows in 2024, reaching as high as $44.2 billion, setting a new historical record.

14. Industry Hot Topics: Elon Musk bluntly states that OpenAI has become a closed-source profit machine, stirring a wave of discussion.

Summary: Currently, BTC firmly occupies the market's center stage, while new on-chain forces emerge like spring shoots breaking through the ground. As 2024 kicks off hot, opportunities abound; are you ready to ride the wave?

#BTC重返10万 #币安Alpha上新

Bitcoin Approaches the $100,000 Threshold, Future Direction Draws Attention

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown mixed movements. Over the weekend, aside from AI Agents surging and the market significantly rising, most cryptocurrencies have shown a narrow consolidation trend. Bitcoin has been hovering between $97,000 and $99,000, while Ethereum has been oscillating between $3,500 and $3,700. Although both show similar trends, Ethereum seems to have more momentum, closing at $3,648 at the time of writing, still 'gathering strength' in the consolidation range.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin's market share has stopped declining and is recovering, highlighting the overall weakness of altcoins. With small market fluctuations over the weekend and the return of European and American investors, as long as Bitcoin holds the previous low of $97,200 from last night, there is great hope for it to hit the $100,000 mark in the short term, with its current price reaching $99,400, sprinting towards the target.

Looking ahead, the outlook for the beginning of this year is optimistic, with predictions suggesting that Bitcoin may break and stabilize above $100,000 before Trump takes office. However, the FOMC meeting on January 29 may cast a 'cloud' over the market, possibly leading to a pullback before the meeting.

This week's financial focus is on the December FOMC meeting minutes and the non-farm employment report on Friday. Although the dot plot from the December meeting appears hawkish, the minutes could reveal FOMC officials' views on the economy and inflation, providing insights into economic slowdown and inflation risks. Meanwhile, economists estimate that the U.S. added 154,000 non-farm jobs in December, a slowdown from the previous value, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%.

From January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin's market cap share jumped from 50% to 60%, while altcoins face pressure. The dynamics of the cryptocurrency market remain unpredictable, and whether Bitcoin can stabilize at the $100,000 threshold remains to be seen.

#币安MegadropSOLV

The bearish OB (Order Block) was tested here, and it has reached the in-place state in the short term.

Here it refuses to distribute and continues to go down, and continues to pay attention to 190.

Of course, if it breaks through the current bearish OB strongly, then 220 can be seen.
#币安Alpha公布第10批项目 #BIO将上线币安

2025.1.3 9:23 AM BTC/ETH Market Analysis

The current market generally maintains a regular oscillation trend and seems to be undergoing a pullback; however, the pullback is relatively small, only at the 5/15 minute level. If the ultra-short-term pullback does not break through the 1-hour trend line, then during the 15-minute level pullback, one can look for entry opportunities at the 1-hour level.

For BTC, it is important to pay attention to the support levels of 95800 and 94450, with no obvious resistance levels for now. On the ETH side, keep an eye on the support levels of 3415 and 3360, which also show no resistance levels at this time. The key point for ETH is at 3440, which successfully broke through yesterday. Today, the focus will be on whether it can stabilize here; if it can stabilize, the subsequent targets will be the levels of 3486, 3605, and 3725. The previous market was suppressed by the 3545 level before falling back, so this wave's key lies at the 3440 point. Currently, the critical position for BTC is around 94700; if it can stabilize in this range during the day, it would be a good choice for ultra-short-term operations.

In terms of operations: when trading short-term contracts during the day, once there is an opportunity, one must enter decisively with a stop-loss, without any hesitation during the operation; both profit-taking and stop-loss should be swift and decisive. For medium-term layouts, start reducing positions in batches once profits exceed 15%; as for long-term, after setting up the layout, there is no need to frequently check the market, just leave it be.

#比特币走势观察 #币安全球用户突破2.5亿

Look at AI memes like act goat fart, are they interesting? Not at all, they're pretty dull. Most things that touch on memes are quite lackluster.

Take doge, shib, floki as examples, why did they become popular? Was it the appealing graphics? Exceptional marketing? A powerful community?

None of that, it was purely luck, being chosen at the right time.

So, while AI agents keep emerging and changing frequently, the leading benchmarks in AI memes remain as stable as a mountain.

I think this perspective is valid.

#AIAgent热潮 #比特币走势观察

ETH today's key focus is on the 3377 level. If it can remain above this, the 1 - 2 hour level will be in a bullish advantage, with upper target resistance levels to pay attention to around 3405, 3435, and 3472! (Once it stabilizes above 3405, this wave of daily level correction will be declared over, and the market will embark on a rising journey.)

Conversely, if it falls below the 3377 position today, then the 1 - 2 hour level will immediately correct, and during the decline, the lower support levels to closely monitor are around 3351, 3313, and 3271!

#比特币走势观察 #AIAgent热潮

2024.12.31, the morning report is here! Time flies, and this year will only suffer for this last day before "liberation". Bitcoin has been quite mischievous, playing tricks on the 27th, and today it surprisingly repeats the same old trick.

In contrast, Ethereum has shown increasingly strong overall performance, with the support level at 3300 as steady as a mountain, yet to be broken. Now, the market has already passed the first phase of Bitcoin's one-sided rise and has entered the second phase.

In this phase, Bitcoin needs to correct or consolidate, allowing funds to slowly flow towards Ethereum and altcoins, opening up a spectacular performance of universal rises and sector rotations. In fact, this grand show has already started. From past declines, we can see that some cryptocurrencies are particularly strong, barely moving when they fall, and stabilizing on the daily charts. These cryptocurrencies are even stronger than Ethereum, showing a more aggressive trend. Once the market stabilizes, they will definitely rebound first.

So, we need to keep a close eye on which coins are suitable for bottom-fishing, and which coins are rising slowly and don’t need to be rushed into, like pnut, behavior, and neiro. I mentioned them yesterday; they have been falling for a long time and cannot just shoot up all of a sudden; they need to test the market repeatedly and only after stabilizing will they rise.

Those coins that have not been rising much may actually surge first later on, as everyone is eagerly waiting for the big players to give orders. After all, the downside potential is limited, but the upside potential is infinite.

#币安Alpha公布第9批项目 #MicroStrategy增持BTC

Previously, Murad racked his brains to come up with the concept of a 'meme super cycle,' which was intended to fool those with an IQ of 100 into getting involved in on-chain memes.

Unexpectedly, it's no longer necessary to exert such effort; on-chain assets have seen the emergence of AI coins, DeSci coins, and similar types, which those with an IQ of 100 can easily assess in terms of their value and logic.

Memes certainly have their value; I personally hold some pure memes like Evan's, as well as new emerging AI memes like Behavior.

However, it's important to understand that on-chain assets can no longer be simply generalized as memes; this has evolved into a completely new model and category of asset issuance. Since October, I have been emphasizing this point, and isn't it true that there are increasingly more voices agreeing with this now?

#2025比特币价格预测 #BTC挖矿难度创新高

December 30th morning report is here! New Year's Day is just around the corner, and a wave of market activity is about to unfold. The current situation has changed significantly, with Bitcoin entering a downward mode, while Ethereum is showing strong momentum. This is clearly a signal that the market is entering a new phase, marking the official start of the second phase.

Not long ago, BGB surged to a high before suddenly plummeting by more than 20 points, which was quite thrilling. Looking at FTX, the remaining compensation will start on January 31, and now there are only 4 days left in the countdown. It is worth paying attention to whether FTT can create some buzz in this opportunity.

AI agent projects on the blockchain have recently become extremely popular, with several new ones emerging. However, truly top-tier AI projects have been surprisingly quiet. As for other sectors, they seem to be lying dormant, just waiting for the right moment to take off when the wind blows.

If this momentum continues, will sector rotation repeat the same pattern as early this year? Will it be the AI sector that showcases its strength first, or will the meme sector seize the opportunity, or could it be something else? Let's keep our eyes peeled and observe quietly.

#ATA涨势分析 #币安LaunchpoolBIO预测

In this bull market, looking around, in addition to Bitcoin, Dogecoin is showing significant signs of rising.

Those other VC coins are really lackluster. I decided to invest in the so-called leader of altcoins, but I missed this wave of market.

Too many altcoins have not been able to rise back to the price level in March at the beginning of the year. This also reminds people that they have to pay attention to new stories and narratives and cannot let go of old concepts. Maybe there will be one tomorrow. A phenomenal project that revolutionizes the currency circle. Now, it is time to focus on the investment research market.

#加密市场调整 #2025加密趋势预测

In my opinion, ETH still has a lot of room for upward movement. The current position is in the middle and low segments of a large range.

As the daily line gradually rises, the activity of Ethereum addresses is getting higher and higher. Judging from a variety of data, this wave of rebound is approaching. However, according to past rules, Saturday and Sunday will most likely be dominated by oscillating trends.

Even so, everyone can now plan and layout in advance. You can choose to enter the market around 3350. If you do short-term, you can get about 150 points of profit first. If you focus on the long term, the target can be set around 3800!
#加密市场调整 #美国加密立法或将重启

Reviewing the previous market trends: In March, BTC strongly broke through its historical high, and altcoins were driven by it, also experiencing a peak in price rise.

However, in April, the market took a sharp downturn, with both BTC and altcoins plummeting. Until the end of May, BTC made a comeback, rising back to its previous high, and altcoins closely followed, rising in tandem, marking the final climax of that market cycle.

The current situation is similar; BTC is likely to repeat history and return to its previous high, and at that time, altcoins will likely also ride this "tailwind" and experience a wave of upward movement.

#BTC上攻11万？ #2025有哪些关键叙事？