Today is Wednesday, June 26, 2024. The Shanzhai finally ushered in a wave of rebound yesterday, and the big cake hit a new low due to the news of Mentougou. At present, the big cake is still fluctuating at the bottom. It needs to stand firm at 6.3w to gradually think that there are clear signs of improvement. Today, let's talk about the three biggest shorts at present. First, let's take a look at the situation of the spot ETF market yesterday. There is no doubt that outflows continue to be seen. After the negative news from the non-agricultural data on June 7, coupled with the impact of the interest rate meeting not long ago, the macroeconomic environment has hit the ETF market. We continue to see net outflows, and there seems to be no sign of recovery in the short term. The second is the Mentougou incident. The people who lost their bitcoins in Mtgox 10 years ago will be compensated. These people will have a strong motivation to sell, but the good thing is that their compensation is not based on the current price. It can't be done at the current price because there is not enough money. He is based on the price of 2014. At that time, one coin was only a few hundred dollars. Although it was compensated at that price, he also had to sell a lot of pens. So if all are sold, the price will definitely be below 50,000. If he sells part of it now, and then sells the rest for 80,000 or 100,000, then there is no possibility of crashing the market. So this matter is basically equivalent to the previous FTT crash. The negative impact it brings to the market is long-term, but the market has finally digested it. At present, the biggest short is the question of when to sell and how much to sell. We can't guess this, but if all are sold, its price will definitely be below 50,000. If its price is below 50,000, how should this matter be analyzed? There is no way to analyze it. This is a potential sword of Damocles on the heads of all players, so it requires us to be more cautious in the future process, because there is a very large short above, and he may sell it at any time, but the problem of Mentougou has the opportunity to be solved once and for all, which is beneficial to the long-term development of Bitcoin in the future, but it does have to experience some pain in the short term. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？