PANews reported on June 24 that Bitfinex Alpha’s latest report stated that the current cryptocurrency market is in a state of uncertainty, with daily, weekly, and monthly charts all close to range lows, and low time frames (one-minute to fifteen-minute charts) (one-minute to the fifteen minute chart). Last week's unexpected sale of more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin by the German government not only exacerbated the market's oversupply problem, but also served as an important reminder of other market pressures, including Mt. Gox's creditors and miners. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $544.1 million last week, which although related to the unwinding of underlying/financing arbitrage, still exacerbated negative sentiment. The market showed a high-volatility day pattern on Thursday and Friday. The peak-to-trough decline last Thursday and Friday was about five percent, which is quite significant for BTC. Historically, moves of this magnitude tend to herald at least a local low, as was the case on June 11, when a similar intra-week decline led to the formation of a new local price bottom. Therefore, buying opportunities exist and these significant dips are worth keeping a close eye on for traders. However, the report believes that the market is currently in wait-and-see mode. In the short term, it will either continue to be pressured by excess sales of BTC and lack any catalyst to promote the rise; or with the approval of the ETH ETF, market sentiment will spark and trigger a new round of positivity. Sentiment, especially against altcoins.
At the macro level, the U.S. economy showed signs of cooling, consumer optimism declined, and a slowdown is expected in the second half of 2024. Although the job market is stable, the overall economy and the job market continue to cool. The real estate market is also under pressure, with housing starts in May hitting a record low. Despite this, the moderate growth in retail sales shows consumer resilience, but the growth rate is lower than expected. The continued growth of the industrial sector has become a key factor in stabilizing the economy and alleviating the slowdown in other areas. In addition, the market is optimistic about inflation, and the Federal Reserve's five-year forward-looking interest rate is close to the target. Rising unemployment benefit applications, slowing housing starts and slowing retail sales growth make interest rate cuts an option for economic stimulus measures. If the cooling economic growth and inflation trends continue, the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in September.
