Will Bitcoin fall to $50,000 in July? Or will it break through $80,000?
From the perspective of macroeconomic data, data released earlier this week showed that overall performance was weaker than expected, boosting market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. However, Friday's PMI data showed that business activity remained resilient, quickly extinguishing hopes for a September rate cut.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is still around $65,000, which is the middle value of the consolidation period in the past three months. It seems stable, but there are two major negative factors.
First, the ETF has a net outflow of $545 million this week, and has been outflowing for 8 consecutive trading days, showing that investors are in a strong risk aversion.
Secondly, the Mentougou incident continues to ferment, and the 10-year Mt.Gox "plot" is about to end. The compensation deadline is set on October 31, 2024, which may bring billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin selling pressure.
In July, will Bitcoin fall below $60,000 and pull back to $50,000, or will it usher in a reversal breakthrough and rush to $80,000?
I think there is a high probability that there will be signs of bottoming out and the current pullback is in preparation for the next breakthrough. Wall Street analysts also said that although Bitcoin bulls are tired, they are well defended at key support levels. The market is waiting for an opportunity to break through $66,000. Once it stands firm, the upward momentum is coming and the reversal is just around the corner.
