The market crash is also a good time to change positions
A partner asked, how to change positions?
In fact, whether to change positions or not depends more on one's own confidence in a certain target, which is the most critical.
Looking into the future, under the same current risk conditions, there will definitely be some with huge potential for future growth and some with no potential for future growth.
In fact, every time you change or configure, you are looking at the future from the present. In fact, the future is constantly changing, especially for small currencies, which are new targets and thus change a lot. Therefore, the change itself also carries certain risks.
The following is my personal experience:
1. Try to exchange for a stock with a higher circulation rate. Full circulation is best.
A high circulation rate means that the cost of chips in most markets will not differ too much. It will not be like some currencies, where other people’s private placement costs may be 1/10 or even 1/100 of yours. For such currencies, there is naturally great unfairness.
2. Try to replace the targets with new narratives and new categories that have been hyped in this round
This market always hypes up new things rather than old ones. New things represent greater imagination, greater room for hype, and more fascinating future narratives. Maybe in the end it is just a concept, but it doesn't matter if it is hyped up.
3. Try to switch to the leader mark on the track
Track leaders mean certainty. Our income comes from certainty and odds, and certainty must come first, followed by odds. However, in fact, many times, we only pay attention to odds and ignore certainty, thinking that low market value means great future potential. In fact, leaders often occupy 50% or even more than 70% of the entire track transaction volume;
4. Try to switch to a target with sufficient liquidity
Liquidity is also an important dimension to test whether a target is healthy. In the secondary market, trading volume is liquidity. Without trading volume, the token market attention is very weak. This must of course be distinguished from the trading volume brought about by short-term hot speculation, but rather long-term trading volume, such as the trading volume in the past 1-3 months, rather than a sudden large trading volume in one or two days.
Final summary: if the risks are the same, choose the one with higher certainty; if the certainty is the same, choose the one with the least threat; if the market capitalization is the same, choose the one with the best liquidity.
Investing itself is a game of probability. All our configurations or position changes, whether it is the 6211 or 721 we talked about in the past, or the barbell configuration strategy, are to pursue certainty in this market while taking into account the odds, and ultimately it can be a positive EV investment.
Maybe we cannot make every investment in small currencies a positive EV decision, but the probability of becoming a positive EV through an investment portfolio is much higher.
The above are all personal biases and just one person’s opinion.
Finally, I would like to emphasize again: small currencies have strong uncertainty and high risks in this market, so readers are advised to pay attention to positions and risk control.
