The market has been highly volatile in the past two days, which is a downward trend. I personally think that the bull and bear market has always been very vague.
Everyone has different definitions. The market trend in the past two days can be said to be a bull market for the Air Force, while the previous period was a bull market for the multiple military forces.
I personally evaluate the bull-bear cycle by looking at volatility. For example, BTC has been trading sideways for more than two months at the bottom of the 15,000 range. This is the performance of a deep bear: there is no volatility at all, and retail investors' willingness to trade is very low.
However, it can be seen recently that the willingness of retail investors to trade is not low, the trading volume of contract exchanges has also continued to rise, and the current price of Bitcoin has not fallen below 66,000.
The manifestation of a bear market must be that mainstream assets begin to halve. For example, they fell below 20-30% for a short period of time that day, and continued to stampede the next day, resulting in squeeze selling and panic.
I mentioned in the video two days ago that the recent deep corrections of Bitcoin were about 10 to 15%, and the depth of the last bull market was 20 to 30 or even 50%.
In fact, this round of decline did not really plunge. I think the definition of Bitcoin's plunge is the 20~30% range.
In this round, due to the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs, the retail investor base has expanded. Some people buy when it falls, and some sell when it rises. The overall volatility has been relatively healthy and upward.
So I don't think the bull market is over, I think it's ongoing.