In an analysis published Thursday, leading global investment firm AllianceBernstein with $725 billion in assets under management significantly raised its price target for Bitcoin, predicting the leading cryptocurrency will hit $1 million by 2033. This bullish outlook is underscored by a new wave of adoption in the U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are managed by major asset managers including BlackRock, Fidelity and Franklin Templeton.
Bitcoin Road to $1 Million by 2033
Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra from Bernstein outline a detailed scenario in which they expect assets under management in Bitcoin-related ETFs to grow to around $190 billion by 2025, a jump significantly increased from the current level of 60 billion USD. “We believe that US-managed ETFs represent a watershed moment for crypto bringing structural demand from traditional capital pools,” the report states.
They highlight the significant impact of these funds, which have attracted approximately $15 billion in new capital flows into the market.
The report extrapolates that by 2025, the Bitcoin ETF will account for about 7% of all Bitcoin in circulation, and by 2033, this number could increase to about 15% of the total Bitcoin supply. This significant increase in institutional interest and investment is poised to play a key role in driving Bitcoin prices upward.
An important aspect of Bernstein's analysis is the impact of Bitcoin's supply mechanism, especially halving events. The most recent halving in April cut the block reward for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, halving the daily new supply from 900 BTC to 450 BTC.
According to Chhugani and Sapra, “The halving creates a unique situation in which the natural Bitcoin selling pressure from miners is halved (or even more, as they reserve more in anticipation of guess), while new catalysts for bitcoin demand increase, leading to exponential prices. move."
Historically, following halving events, BTC has experienced significant price increases. Analysts look to past cycles for context: in 2017, Bitcoin rose to about 5 times its marginal cost of production, then bottomed out at 0.8 times the following year. A similar pattern was observed in the 2021 cycle.
In the 2024-27 cycle, they predict a more significant but conservative increase to 1.5 times Bitcoin's marginal cost of production, moving to a predicted mid-cycle peak of $200,000 by mid-year 2025. In the next cycle, Bernstein expects the Bitcoin price to reach half a million US dollars by 2029, before breaking the $1 million mark four years later.
In tandem with their Bitcoin outlook, Bernstein also initiated coverage on MicroStrategy with an outperform rating, targeting a $2,890 price for the stock by the end of 2025. MicroStrategy has become famous for its BTC acquisition strategy , currently holds 214,400 BTC, equivalent to 1.1%. The circulating supply of the cryptocurrency, worth about $14.5 billion.
MicroStrategy's aggressive acquisition of Bitcoin, funded through convertible bonds—a form of long-term debt that can be converted into stock under specific conditions—demonstrates a strong investment strategy that analysts analysts believe carries “limited liquidation risk” due to the inherently profitable nature of their holdings. based on today's Bitcoin price. They predict MicroStrategy's holdings will increase to 1.5% of the Bitcoin supply by 2025.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $67,032.
