The problem with China's real estate is that expectations are highly consistent. When it rises, everyone believes that it will "rise forever", and when it falls, everyone is sure that they will "lose twenty years", which increases the volatility of the market. I have written an article before about the inspiration of stock market regulation to real estate market regulation: muddy the water. Only by muddying the water, making half of the people think it will rise and half of the people think it will fall, can the market maintain dynamic stability in active transactions.
After the Japanese real estate bubble burst in 1990, expectations were not one-sided. Some people were bullish and some were bearish. Transactions remained active. The area of real estate construction and sales remained relatively stable for six years, and the scale of the real estate industry did not shrink sharply.
China's real estate sales peaked in 2021 and then shrank rapidly. The sales area fell from nearly 1.8 billion square meters in 2021 to 1.117 billion square meters in 2023. The year-on-year decline in the first quarter of this year was about 20%. If expectations are not changed, annual sales will fall to about 900 million square meters, which is half of three years ago. This is the result of highly consistent market expectations. The cliff of transaction leads to a hard landing, which is easy to induce systemic risks. After the left full rudder, it must be the right full rudder. This is also the background of today's proposal to protect #people's property safety#.
Maintain the judgment in May. At that time, I said that China's housing prices will bottom out within three months.
Click on the avatar if you like contracts, like to study the market, and study technology. I have doubled about 30 times in a month. I share it for free. I am waiting for you in the circle. Work-heavy-consumption: Lao Gou said currency, online at any time, welcome to discuss and make progress together #美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变 #美国5月CPI超预期回落 #IO #第55期新币挖矿IO #币安用户数突破2亿 $BTC $ETH $BNB
