Author: Yashu Gola, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Wuzhu, Golden Finance
PEPE rebounded 17.85% two days after forming a local low around $0.00001300 and is currently trading at a high of $0.00001340 on June 12.
PEPE/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The rally was accompanied by rising trading volumes, suggesting growing confidence among traders, which could further fuel upward momentum.
At least three indicators point to a strong outlook for the PEPE market, suggesting that the memecoin’s price could surge by a massive 50% by the end of June. Let’s explore these potential catalysts in detail.
PEPE's rising wedge pattern suggests a 70% upside ahead
As of June 11, PEPE’s price is hovering near the lower trendline of the current ascending wedge pattern, indicating potential support and a possible rally to the upper trendline at approximately $0.00002661, which would represent an increase of approximately 70% from current price levels.
PEPE/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Rising wedges usually resolve when price breaks below the lower trendline, accompanied by an increase in volume, leading to a sharp decline. However, PEPE’s continued rebound from the trendline suggests that such a breakout is not imminent.
This potential rebound is supported by two key support levels near the lower trendline of the wedge: the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; red wave) and the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level.
However, a break below this support could trigger a bearish scenario with possible downside targets between $0.00000283 and $0.00000642 by the end of June or July, depending on the breakdown point.
Whales’ accumulation shows market confidence
The PEPE market is showing bullish signs due to the continued accumulation and holding behavior of the largest investors.
The percentage of PEPE supply held by the largest holders (1 billion or more) has remained relatively stable, fluctuating slightly around 96.02%. This suggests that the largest investors did not significantly adjust their positions during the June price correction.
Distribution of PEPE supply among entities with 1 million unlimited token balances. Source: Santiment
Smaller holders, including those holding 10 million to 100 million PEPE and 1 million to 10 million PEPE, actively increased their holdings when prices fell, indicating increased participation and confidence among retail investors.
Overall, the increase in the proportion of small and mid-cap PEPE holders suggests that market interest and strategic accumulation are expanding, thus improving the upside outlook for June.
Upcoming Fed Decision and Market Reactions
PEPE is expected to rise 50% by the end of June on expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September.
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will keep the option of an early rate cut due to rising U.S. unemployment, which rose to 4% in May from 3.9% the previous month.
Bond traders also increased bets on a 250 basis point (bps) rate cut in September, with the probability rising to 50% ahead of the June 12 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from 48.6% a month ago.
Those bets led to a sharp drop in Treasury yields ahead of the FOMC meeting, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling 180 basis points in a day.
U.S. Treasury 10-year yield daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
Lower bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding risky assets like cryptocurrencies. This may increase traders’ interest in the riskiest memecoins like PEPE, Dogecoin, Bonk (BONK) in June.
