Only hard work can win, and all-in-one poker can make you rich
1>Human nature is always full of fear, and the investment market needs someone to constantly give you emotional comfort:
--The copycat needs a group of kols to shout orders, so that the leeks dare to buy and hold on. --The meme needs a leader to raise his arm and call for action, so that retail investors will build a community and gather consensus.
--A niche capital market like the cryptocurrency circle needs pioneers like Li Xiaolai and Musk. Only the traditional Internet, old money, and veterans will dare to try.
As things progress, everyone can see the changes.
No matter how many strategies and plots the counselors and followers come up with, there will always be doubts and anxiety.
You need these leaders to soothe your negative emotions and make decisions for you that you want to do but dare not do.
History and the market are not like playing Warcraft. No one can fully grasp the market and the opponent's movements. The game is full of fog.
The world is full of uncertainty, and there are too many elements of luck that form a butterfly effect that influences the situation. Every decision is a gamble.
The "all-in" battle at a critical moment is often a "narrow road encounter" between the two sides, and courage becomes the winning factor.
No matter how positive the EV is, when both parties go all in on a single hand, probability is of no use and it depends more on luck.
--In 2017, Wu Jihan, who had the largest computing power in the cryptocurrency circle, went all in and bet on BCH, and a group of believers emerged instantly.
--In 2022, SBF pushed the FTX exchange to fully leverage its assets in a circular bet on the Sol ecosystem.
The leader made the right bet, and the people around him gathered around him more closely. They instantly became pioneers in the cryptocurrency circle through word of mouth.
If the leader makes a wrong bet, the counselors can still change their allegiance, and the retail investors in the market can also rebel in an instant.
The leader will lose his head and everything will be lost.
-Wu Jihan lost the bet, lost power, and could only go to the U.S. stock market to reap the profits.
-SBF lost the bet and went to jail for 25 years. The sharks from Wall Street smelled the blood and came to dissect his body.
-Kim Doo-hwan won the bet. He pretended to be calm in front of the major general, showing his demeanor as a marshal. Then he secretly ran to the toilet and laughed wildly for more than half an hour. Later, he served as president for 8 years.
What is truly scarce is the monarch's ability to make decisions and the courage to take responsibility, and a whole county's population can provide you with a team of advisers.
Strategists are afraid of risks. They want to move up but think that things are good now. It is difficult for them to take the risk and go all in. They do not have the courage to bear the consequences of failure. It is easy to find strategists, but it is difficult to find a leader.
Once there is a leader, counselors will emerge like mushrooms after rain.
2> From a historical perspective, Zhu Yuanzhang was at an absolute disadvantage in the Battle of Poyang Lake
His advisers Li Shanchang, Liu Ji, and Zhu Sheng all knew that Chen Youliang's weaknesses were his arrogance, his smallness of arms, and his fatigue from traveling by boat. The key to victory was the wolf pack tactics and fire attack on the small boats.
Zhu Yuanzhang also knew it.
But were the enemy troops really that exhausted from fighting? Was Chen Youliang really that unpopular? Could the small boat tactic really work?
Are the temperature and wind direction on that day favorable for fire attack?
No one knows these things, we can only gamble.
Zhu Yuanzhang went all in, risking the lives of his entire army, and led his soldiers to burn the ships, unifying the south and subsequently starting the Hongwu Reign.
History is like beads scattered on the ground. When you string them together, you will find that "planning" is important, but "decision" is more important.
Throughout history, great leaders who have made great achievements are often not the most shrewd or resourceful, but they are definitely the ones who dare to make decisions with all their might.
Most of the time, the "brilliant plans" submitted by the strategists are not "one plan to decide the outcome", but rather the team of strategists come up with a combination of several countermeasures and then put the pressure on the leader.
The same is true for the major generals in the play, except that the leader Jin Douhuan takes various factors into consideration and dares to gamble and bet.
Because of cowardice, the wiser counselors are willing to be the younger brothers in front of the more courageous leaders.
3> After several ups and downs, I deeply understood the uncertainty of the market and the randomness of world events.
Because in reality, we see countless bodies of martyrs who were two steps ahead of the trend turning into ashes, and then the pioneers who were one step ahead of the trend emerge:
-In 2016, Zhao Changpeng sold all his belongings and bet on the highest peak of $BTC at that time.
-At the end of 2020, when Bitcoin broke through the "historical high" of $20,000, Fatty fully leveraged A9 to go long on $BTC, and betting that the market would not have a big correction was equivalent to actively putting his head against the muzzle of the opponent's gun, betting that there was no bullet in the muzzle.
-In 2017, Zhan Ketuan and Wu Jihan turned against each other, and they all bet on Ai with huge computing power, but lost everything.
- In 2014, Jia Yueting started various businesses with high leverage and high financing, and also forced himself to become a pioneer in electric cars. He was defeated in the United States.
The only difference between them is that the martyr entered a little earlier and had a little less luck. The ending is indeed the difference between heaven and hell.
Even if you are sure of the long-term trend, it is difficult to grasp the timing of entry. The consequence of all-in is a complete loss, which requires the courage to fight to the death and burn your boats.
So my style is: small positions in the capital market, light positions in high-risk and high-odds. Reality leaves a lot of redundancy. Even if I make mistakes in succession and get emotional, I can ensure that I can always stay at the table.
But this style is too cautious. When there are some good opportunities in the market, I am very afraid of small probability risks and dare not go all in with a heavy bet.
However, it is very difficult to have the opportunity to "cross classes" by simply holding light positions for several consecutive years in the market.
Success requires both patience and ambition: "Life requires three bull and bear cycles to get rich"
When I am patient, I can analyze better strategies and suggestions, and I can also wait for many opportunities; but the upper limit of success often depends on how ambitious I am and how much I dare to go all in like Kim Doo-hwan.
The ceiling of counselors should be Zhuge Liang
The reason why Zhuge Liang was known as the Crouching Dragon and the Phoenix was because he was not only a counselor but also a counselor.
After his lord's death, Zhuge Liang was still able to take on the responsibility and make decisions personally.
Ordinary strategists cannot do this, and there are even fewer strategists like Jia Xu, Guo Jia, and Zhou Yu. There are only a few people like Zhuge Liang in the five thousand years of Chinese history who can take on important responsibilities.
Therefore, when evaluating senior officials within the system, great importance is attached to their past experience as top leaders.
Because when it comes to making important decisions, it is more important for the top leader to step up and specify the direction of progress than any other clever ideas.
Throughout history
A counselor can be a military strategist, economist, scientist, or diplomat, but a top leader can only be a politician.
Whether it is business or investment, why are those who can make big money in the cryptocurrency circle all gamblers? How can you become famous and rich without the courage to gamble?
-Only gamblers can achieve great achievements and become Mao Zedong and Zhu Yuanzhang.
-Only by going all in can we create the Livermore, Soros and Fit in the market.
If you want to be rich, bet big! ! ! Don’t be afraid of the pain of losing, just be afraid of stopping gambling.