The altcoin craze is coming in October 2024! Why do you say that? Analyzing the large-cycle trends of BTC, BTC-D and ETH/BTC, we can draw the following conclusions:
1. Observing historical data, BTC entered the third stage of the main uptrend two months after the halving;
2. Bitcoin's market share (BTC-D) peaked in December 2020, seven months after the halving, and then began to decline;
3. ETH/BTC bottomed out in the same December 2020, and then ETH began to strengthen as the leader of altcoins;
4. The pace of this round of bull market is faster than that of 2021, so it is predicted that BTC-D will peak six months after the halving, that is, in October, and the market share is expected to be between 57% and 60%;
5. The Ethereum ETF is expected to be launched in July, and the bottom of ETH/BTC may appear in advance, but a sharp rise may have to wait until after October.
Why did altcoins explode in the middle and late stages of the bull market?
1. The altcoin project team is short of funds. From the bear market to the early bull market, they have to continue selling coins to maintain operations;
2. In the middle and late stages of the bull market, after big investors make profits on BTC, they will invest part of their funds in altcoins, driving the market bubble, which is both a carnival and a harvest;
3. During the market frenzy, the project team can only ship better by raising prices.
Response strategy:
1. Before October 2024, the investment portfolio is 50% BTC, 30% ETH/SOL/BNB, and 20% popular altcoins;
2. At the end of October, it is expected that the main uptrend of BTC will end, and the investment portfolio will be adjusted to 30% BTC, 40% ETH/SOL/BNB, and 30% popular altcoins;
3. At the end of December, it is expected that BTC will be close to the top, and the investment portfolio will be adjusted to 30% USDT for arbitrage, 30% ETH/SOL/BNB, and 40% popular altcoins;
4. At the end of March 2025, it is expected that the altcoin craze will be nearing its end, and 90% of the funds will be transferred to USDT, and 10% of popular altcoins will be retained;
5. Starting from April 2025, all cryptocurrency investments will be cleared and the focus will be on the US stock market.
