#5月非农数据即将公布
A must-read for people in the cryptocurrency circle! Understand the non-farm payrolls in one minute - what is it, what to look at, and what is the impact?
What is non-farm payrolls?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys private and government entities around the country every month to obtain information on recruitment and employment and form a report, which is often referred to as the "Non-farm Payrolls Report (NFP)".
In terms of release time, except for a few exceptions due to market holidays, the non-farm payrolls report is released on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. If converted to Beijing time, the summer time corresponds to 20:30 Beijing time and the winter time is 21:30.
What to look at in non-farm payrolls?
First, the number of new non-farm payrolls. Traders will first focus on this overall data, which directly reflects the state of the job market.
Second, the revised value. Given the size and complexity of the data, the non-farm payrolls report often revise the data of the previous month.
Fourth, salary data. Wage growth is an important precursor to inflation. Fast wage growth may lead to rising inflationary pressure, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates; slow wage growth may ease inflationary pressure.
Fifth, labor force participation rate. This data shows the proportion of the population that is eligible for work and willing to work to the total working-age population, which helps to assess the true state of the job market.
What is the impact of non-agricultural data?
The performance of non-agricultural data has a significant impact on multiple asset classes in the financial market because it is one of the important indicators of the health of the US economy.
1. Foreign exchange market
The US dollar: strong non-agricultural data (i.e., higher-than-expected new jobs) usually pushes up the US dollar because it means that the economy is in good condition and may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Conversely, weak data may lead to a weakening of the US dollar.
2. Stock market
The US stock market (such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average): Strong non-agricultural data may indicate strong economic growth, thereby boosting the stock market. However, overly strong data may also trigger concerns about interest rate hikes, thereby curbing stock market gains.
Industry sectors: When non-farm data performs well, cyclical industries (such as finance and industry) usually benefit; on the contrary, defensive industries (such as utilities and consumer goods) may perform mediocrely.
Gold: As a safe-haven asset, gold usually rises when non-farm data is weak (indicating economic weakness or increased risk). On the other hand, gold prices usually fall when the data is strong (indicating a healthy economy and rising expectations of rate hikes).
Cryptocurrency: The cryptocurrency market reacts more indirectly to the non-farm report, but as institutional investors participate more, this market may begin to show similar reaction patterns to traditional markets. Strong non-farm data may have a negative impact on major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, as they are often seen as a hedge against inflation or economic uncertainty.
