Attention! The "battle" between the Fed and the market
Hey, did you know? Now the US manufacturing PMI has shrunk for two consecutive months, and has shrunk for 18 of the past 19 months! There are big problems behind this. The disposable income of American residents is under great pressure, and the savings rate is also very low. But the strange thing is that there is nothing wrong with the US stock market.
But the bond market is not ordinary. It has noticed the big trouble of the US economy, and the yield of US bonds has dropped sharply. What does this mean? It means that the market thinks that the Fed may cut interest rates! But the Fed has been keeping an eye on inflation and seems to have not reacted yet.
Investors have already taken action, and the focus has long shifted from inflation to economic health! Will the Fed keep up with the pace in the future? Friday's employment report and unemployment rate may be the key. The story here is exciting and it concerns the interests of each of us! Don't miss this drama!
The latest data just released last Friday showed that after deducting inflation, residents' disposable income in April actually fell by 0.1% month-on-month. This is the second decline in the past three months! The personal savings rate in April and March was only 3.6%, the lowest level since December 2022. The recent weak US economic data has made the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model helpless, so it has to lower the US second quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, which was previously expected to be 2.7%!
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