There are four key events to watch in the current market fundamentals:
Big macro situation: The United States is about to enter the harvest period of the US dollar, and interest rate cuts and low-priced US dollars have become its strategic policy. Although currently affected by inflation, this move is imperative and predictable.
US presidential election: Neither US stocks nor Bitcoin can fall, this is a technical correction. The United States' support for the cryptocurrency market is an established policy, especially Hong Kong has also established its own ETF, injecting market vitality and further promoting the layout of the United States. Therefore, the big bull market is irreversible.
ETF approval: ETF speculation has come to an end, and the next step is to observe the scale that ETF can reach. According to marginal theory, its positive effect will gradually weaken, and the driving force on the currency price will also weaken accordingly. Wall Street's ETFs are still in net inflows, and the future trend will be dominated by ETFs.
Halving is good for driving the bull market: halving leads to a reduction in the supply of chips, and the market benefits, but halving only reduces supply rather than cuts off supply, and its impact will be weakened. According to historical trajectories, Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles have always been determined by the halving cycle. Although this year is not the only determining factor, its influence still exists.
