This round of bull market started one month after the collapse of FTX.
First, due to the entry of Hong Kong, Bitcoin and Hong Kong concepts rose in February and March.
Then the BRC20 inscription appeared in April and May.
After that, the US regulation caused the market to fall. In June and July, the POW sector rose, among which BCH was the most eye-catching.
From September to November, it was led by BRC20 again, and the inscriptions flourished, driving the overall market to rise. At this time, the AI sector also started to start.
Then the ETF was passed, and the market washed for half a month. The big cake hit 48,000 and then fell back to 38,000, hitting the bottom.
During the Chinese New Year this year, the bull market started again, and some stagnant sectors led by MEME, AI, RWA, and BNB started to start until recently.
Recently, due to the application of Ethereum spot ETF, the Ethereum sector has also risen slightly, but the overall performance is still not too good.
Looking at the projects that have skyrocketed in this round of bull market, most of them are different from the previous round, and the basic overlap is not even 10%.
The last bull market was dominated by DEFI, Lianyou, and public chains, but only a few of the above three sectors were relatively eye-catching in this round, and most of them performed poorly.
In the last bull market, VC capital new coins were quite popular and performed strongly. However, most of the investment in this round was "what retail investors like", which changed the way of chip distribution. Capital and project parties reserved too many chips, which became a criticism and no one paid for it.
So the question is, what should we do, should we follow the trend and chase the rise, or ambush the sluggish sector?
First of all, we must be clear that in this circle, except for phenomenal projects such as big cake and Ethereum, most projects will sooner or later conform to the parabolic theory, that is, when they are hyped to a certain extent, they will cut leeks, such as FIL, LTC, BCH, UNI, EOS, etc. Many projects peaked at the end of 2017, many will peak in 21, and some will peak in this round. Even if there are good applications, it is still the same sentence, time makes things happen.
Secondly, 99% of the projects will experience a long-term washout before they pull up. ORDI, SOL, AR, CFX, all of them have experienced this. Which of the depressed sectors are completely garbage? Which are just washouts? This is something worth considering and an opportunity.
In addition, look at the position of the pie.
Any sector will be washed out. AI has washed out, BRC has washed out before, and is washing out now. MEME has been washing out for two years.
Many sectors have also experienced a bull market. AI has been bullish, BRC Inscription has been bullish, and MEME is bullish, and has been bullish for 2 months.
So in the second half of the year, should we choose MEME or AI, which are bullish and have been bullish for a long time, or choose those sectors that have not yet exploded, such as public chains or Lianyou?
From the main point of view, just like when Inscription was the hottest, I began to slowly switch to other sectors. Now, MEME should do the same.
Let me give you a simple example.
Inscription in December last year and Ethereum L2 in December last year were laid out at the same time. Even if L2 does not perform well, it will not lose money today, but Inscription will.
This is not a disparagement of Inscription, but a strategy.
After Inscription goes up, you can still buy it, but how should you buy it?
Buy less, buy in small batches, buy in batches, be optimistic about the long term, pay attention to short-term callbacks, and the risk of most Inscriptions returning to zero.
Today's MEME is the same reason.
For projects that have risen dozens of times or hundreds of times, if everyone has made money before, then they should stop profit in batches. If you didn't buy it before, and now you are going to increase it ten times or a hundred times to help others? I think it's stupid.
MEME's strength this time is ultimately due to the changes in the hype method and retail investor trends in this round, but most retail investors will not buy too much MEME, or they will not buy it at such a high multiple, which is why MEME can continue to rise.
meme does not need logic, has no application, and retail investors are happy together, but like GME at the beginning, many years later, everyone only remembers the GME myth, and no one knows how many corpses are buried. The so-called "retail investors beat Wall Street" is actually a story of "one general's success and thousands of bones are withered".
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