After backtesting the data, it seems that liquidity is missing before June, July and August.
I plan to close some positions, which is a bit boring.
I heard that not is a bit fierce. Although it seems that it will not play altcoins anymore, I personally feel that it is possible to short for the second time.
1. Macroeconomic situation: The United States will enter the harvest period of the US dollar. Cutting interest rates and low-priced US dollars are the major strategic policies. Although it is now affected by inflation, this action must be taken! It is foreseeable.
2. US presidential election: US stocks cannot fall, and Bitcoin cannot fall at the same time. Now it is just a technical correction. It is also the established policy of the United States to dominate the cryptocurrency market, which cannot be shaken. In particular, Hong Kong has also established its own ETF to inject vitality into the market and promote the layout of the old Americans. Therefore, the bull market is irreversible.
3. The approval of ETF: The hype of ETF has come to an end. It remains to be seen how large the scale of ETF will be in the future. According to the marginal theory, its benefits will be weakened, and the promotion of currency prices will also be weakened. Now Wall Street's ETFs are still inflowing, and ETFs will become the most critical and important dominant force in ruling the future trend of Bitcoin.
4. Halving is good for the bull market: Halving is a change in the supply side of chips. Reducing supply is definitely good for the market, but halving is still increasing rather than cutting off supply, and its impact will be weakened. According to historical trajectories, the bull and bear of Bitcoin has always been determined by the halving cycle. Although it is not the only determining force this year, its influence is definitely still there!
