Translation: Blockchain in Vernacular

The 2024 Indian and US elections are seen as crucial for the future of global cryptocurrency policy. With India emerging as a key player in the cryptocurrency market and the US continuing to dominate, these election results could have a significant impact on the digital asset space. Let’s take a deeper look at how the political environment in these two countries could affect the trajectory of cryptocurrency.

1. The U.S. government

1) Trump’s new attitude towards cryptocurrencies

Donald Trump’s stance on cryptocurrencies has undergone a major shift. Once a staunch critic, he is now incorporating digital assets into his campaign strategy. His team has begun accepting donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and even the interesting Dogecoin (DOGE).

The shift is a strategic move to appeal to the growing crowd that is investing in cryptocurrencies. Trump, who expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies in a 2019 tweet, now sees the value of embracing the digital wave and acknowledging the growing political influence of cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

2) The Biden administration’s tactical shift

The Biden administration has also shown signs of a shift in cryptocurrency regulation. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), suggesting that their stance may be softening. The move appears to be a response to the growing political influence of the crypto community and a strategy to avoid alienating potential voters.

Experts like Haseeb Qureshi of Dragonfly believe Biden’s adjustments are an effort to win votes in a closely fought election. The administration appears to be struggling to balance consumer protections with the growing demand for crypto-friendly policies.

2. India’s growing cryptocurrency influence

1) Current cryptocurrency situation in India

India is emerging as a major player in the cryptocurrency space, with around 93.5 million cryptocurrency holders, or about 6.55% of the population. Despite the rapid pace of cryptocurrency adoption, the regulatory environment remains fairly strict, such as the 1% source deducted tax levied on transactions.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken a cautious approach to cryptocurrencies, focusing on broader economic and social issues, which remain secondary to pressing problems such as unemployment and religious tensions.

2) Political parties’ views on cryptocurrencies

In India, neither the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor the Indian National Congress (INC) has made cryptocurrency a major component of its policies. The BJP’s manifesto mentions digital sovereignty and cybersecurity but does not explicitly mention cryptocurrencies. Similarly, the INC talks about using digital ledgers in agricultural transactions but does not directly mention cryptocurrencies.

3) The future of India’s cryptocurrency policy

Regardless of the election outcome, India’s cryptocurrency policy is unlikely to change significantly in the short term. If the Modi government remains in power, the current cautious attitude is expected to continue. An opposition victory could bring new perspectives, but even if there is a policy shift, it is unlikely to happen immediately due to the wider issues.

3. The impact of the US election results on cryptocurrency regulation

1) The possible impact of the Trump administration

The Trump administration may introduce a more friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, promoting innovation and investment. Trump’s acceptance of cryptocurrency donations and his forays into digital assets, such as his non-fungible token (NFT) project, indicate his support for the industry.

Experts such as Mihał Popieszalski of MatterFi believe that Trump’s approach could attract young, tech-savvy voters active in the cryptocurrency space. The growing political influence of this group could push for more favorable regulatory policies.

2) Possible impact of the Biden administration

Although the Biden administration has shown some signs of easing, it is likely to maintain a cautious stance, focusing on consumer protection and financial stability. The approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) shows recognition of the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies, but strict regulation is still likely.

Popieszalski noted that the Biden administration is likely to emphasize regulatory clarity to create a more orderly and controlled cryptocurrency market, an approach that could appease traditional financial markets while meeting the growing demand for digital assets.

4. Summary

The 2024 elections in India and the United States will undoubtedly play a key role in shaping global cryptocurrency policy. While the political landscape in India suggests a continuation of current restrictive policies, significant changes are likely to occur in the United States depending on the election results. Whether it’s Trump’s pro-crypto stance or Biden’s cautious approach, the future of cryptocurrency regulation will be significantly affected by these political dynamics.