#From an options market perspective, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has decreased significantly in the last month, especially for options expiring within a month, indicating that traders do not expect a significant increase in volatility in the market. BTC is likely to fluctuate in a wide range between $58,000 and $72,000 in the next 1-2 months.
Looking at BTC ETFs, there has been continuous outflow over the past two weeks, indicating short-term profit taking. However, GBTC has seen its first net inflow, so from a BTC ETF fund flows perspective, the short-term selling pressure in the market has temporarily eased, and there is clear support for BTC in the lowest levels.
From a macro perspective, the Fed's Net Liquidity Ratio has begun to decline, and the growth of the total market value of stablecoins has slowed, validating the correction in the cryptocurrency market over the past month.
However, judging by the results of the interest rate meeting, Fed Chairman Powell will focus on the downward trend in the formation of inflation, the increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% and the liquidity risks, which will determine whether there will be a rate cut. This indicates that the Fed is considering a rate cut path, while the market believes there will only be one rate cut this year, indicating a deviation. It is expected that there is room for the cryptocurrency market to anticipate an earlier and larger rate cut.
We expect the next peak of the bull market to be around September, and the main sectors that could see significant changes are:
- BTC ecosystem: new asset protocols such as runes, ARC20, $BTC layer 2, etc.
- AI sector: The heat of the AI ââsector will continue, and the ability to capture value in the secondary market will affect the valuation of financing in the primary market.
