Big news! Trump promises to pardon the founder of the dark web Silk Road if he wins the election
News source: https://cn.cointelegraph.com/news/donald-trump-ross-ulbricht-silk-road
Former US President Donald Trump has vowed to release Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht if he is re-elected.
"If you vote for me, I will commut the sentence of Ross Ulbricht on day one," Trump said at the Libertarian Party National Convention in Washington on May 25. "He's served 11 years, and we're going to send him home," he said. Silk Road is known as the first modern darknet market, with its payment system based on Bitcoin.
“I will make sure that the future of cryptocurrency and the future of Bitcoin will be made in America and not pushed overseas,” he said, before promising to protect those who choose to hold crypto assets outside of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges.
He added: "I will support the right to self-custody and say to the 50 million cryptocurrency holders across America, I will use your vote to keep Elizabeth Warren and her people away from your Bitcoin," a stark departure from his calls during his presidency that Bitcoin was a scam.
Who is Ross Ulbricht?
Ross Ulbricht, nicknamed Fear Pirate Roberts, is the owner of the trading platform Silk Road. Silk Road is an online trading platform for drugs, psychotropic substances and other illegal products. The website uses hidden services and uses Bitcoin as the main currency of the website because of its relative anonymity, fast transaction speed and founder Ross's love for digital currencies. The website charges a fee for each transaction, and Ulbricht has earned an estimated net worth of millions of dollars. In 2013, Ulbricht was arrested on suspicion of drug trafficking, hacking and conspiracy to launder money. In 2015, the 31-year-old Ulbricht was sentenced to life imprisonment.
Currently, mainstream currencies are fluctuating near new highs and are expected to break through new highs to drive a new round of increases.
There are about 14 days until the next Fed meeting (2024.06.13)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market technical and sentiment environment analysis
Sentiment Analysis Components
Technical indicators
Price trend
In the past week, BTC price increased by 0.56% and ETH price decreased by -0.94%.
The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week
The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week
The table shows the price change rate over the past week.
Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)
In the past week, BTC broke upward and then pulled back to the area of intensive trading and fluctuated widely, while the price of ETH as a whole fluctuated widely in the area of intensive trading.
The above picture shows the distribution of BTC’s concentrated trading areas in the past week.
The above picture shows the distribution of ETH's dense trading areas in the past week.
The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.
POC_SARPoint Of ControlSupportResistancebtc67854.1167015.6169548.22 eth 3749.143656.113951.04
Volume and Open Interest
In the past week, BTC's trading volume increased after the rise on May 27, while ETH's trading volume was generally sluggish; the open interest of both BTC and ETH increased slightly.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility
Historical volatility of BTC and ETH remained at a low level over the past week; implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose slightly.
The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average
Event-driven
In terms of events, there is major data this Friday.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin/gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.
The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment
Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 11.6%, and short-term interest rates rebounded to around 12.7%.
The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past
Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment
In the past week, the average annualized return on BTC fees was 11.1%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded slightly.
The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average
The table shows the average return of BTC for different holding days in the past
Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week dropped to around 0.55, and the consistency between different varieties dropped significantly.
In the above figure, the blue line is the bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation
Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 80% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 45% of the prices relative to BTC were above the 30-day moving average, 32% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 76% of the prices were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that the overall market was in a stage where most coins resumed their upward trend.
上图为['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', '1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 sats', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec' , '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'something', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, zeal , 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', ' enj', 'ens', 'eos', 'etc', 'fet', 'file', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt' , hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, ' kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana ', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mine', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', op, order, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei ', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr ', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'
Summarize
Over the past week, the prices of both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have fluctuated near all-time highs. At the same time, their historical volatility remains low. Bitcoin's volume has increased after the rise on May 27, while Ethereum's volume is generally sluggish. Bitcoin and Ethereum's open interest has increased slightly, and implied volatility has also increased slightly. In addition, Bitcoin's funding rate has rebounded slightly, and market breadth indicators show that the overall market is in a stage where most currencies have resumed their upward trend.
Twitter: @DerivativesCN
Website: https://dcbot.ai/
Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN
