Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Nanzhi
Yesterday morning, the Mt.Gox related addresses that had been silent for 5 years began to continuously transfer large amounts of Bitcoin, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands. Currently, Mt.Gox's BTC inventory has reached 141,680, worth nearly 10 billion US dollars. The market began to worry about the possible selling pressure risks, and BTC also fell from 69,400 USDT at 9 am yesterday to 67,500 USDT.
The Mt.Gox incident is finally coming to an end. What impact will it have on the market? Odaily will analyze it in this article.
Compensation Scheme Details
The first is the question that users are most concerned about: Is Mt.Gox transferring tokens after many years in order to sell them off?
Documents released by Mt.Gox show that Mt.Gox confirmed this batch of transfers in preparation for the creditor repayment deadline on October 31. According to its documents, the Rehabilitation Trustee is preparing to repay the claims for the allocated cryptocurrency. There are two options for claims: Option 1 is to repay BTC and BCH to creditors on a designated exchange, and Option 2 is to sell tokens and then repay. According to Cointelegraph, the Rehabilitation Trustee has not yet specified what compensation plan to follow.
Earlier on April 21, a Reddit user reported that Mt.Gox claimants found that the claim form had been updated, adding fields such as the expected number of tokens to be retrieved, and showing BCH and BTC codes. In January of this year, some creditors received emails asking them to confirm their account information and notifying them that they might not receive BTC/BCH repayments if their accounts were disabled or frozen in the future. This suggests that Mt.Gox is at least moving towards BTC payments in some way, rather than just working on fiat payments, but most users believe there is no connection between updating the form and paying compensation.
It can be concluded here that BTC does face the risk of selling pressure from Mt.Gox, but whether it will choose this option and what the specific sales ratio will be are currently unknown.
How is the selling pressure?
Mt.Gox transferred a total of 141,680 BTC to multiple addresses. Users can view the details in the Odaily report, but the total amount of sales is unknown as mentioned in the previous section. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said: "I personally expect most Bitcoin to be held, but I can't say the same about BCH. Not all tokens will be sold."
Regarding the time of sale, Mark Karpelès, former CEO of Mt. Gox, posted on the X platform: "As far as I know, everything is normal at Mt. Gox. The trustee is transferring the tokens to another wallet in preparation for possible distributions this year, and Bitcoin will not be sold immediately." The official final repayment deadline is October 31, 2024, which is still a long time away.
In addition, in terms of the sales details, according to the official announcement of Mt.Gox in January 2023, the repayment plan provided by Mt.Gox is divided into two categories, namely "Base Repayment" and "Proportional Repayment". The amount of the base repayment part is the same, and the proportional repayment part provides creditors with 2 options, namely "mid-term repayment and final repayment" or "early lump-sum repayment". In other words, if you choose to sell tokens, it is not a quick sell-off in a short period of time. It can be understood as another form of GBTC selling pressure, which will be sold in batches over a longer period of time.
in conclusion
In summary, we can conclude that Mt.Gox’s token transfer action represents the potential for token selling to a certain extent, but the final plan has not yet been determined. Even if the sale plan is chosen, it will take a long time to digest and it is difficult to directly cause a market crash.
