📍 Thread 6
✍🏻 Based on the cyclicality and data mentioned in previous articles, the timing of Q2/2024 is Bitcoin season (why, please re-read the specific data mentioned). In Defi market, there is a view that $ETH growth this season will be lower than $BTC and this view also has very reasonable data (although the process is $BTC increases by 40%-60%, $ETH will increase $80%- 100% or more).
. With the above opinions + the story of $BTC ETF + updated data in previous articles, I am even more confident that this Q2/2024 is $BTC season. Since it's $BTC season, the ratio of $ETH and altcoin sw or even the correction still exists is not small.
✍🏻 Another timing for the year 2024 as a whole is that Q3/2024 is the time of the traditional financial market. When huge cash flows escape from banks and areas such as economics or society, it will be spread evenly to traditional financial markets.
. With the correlation of macro with Crypto, the initial phase of the explosive growth wave of traditional finance will also be a short-term adjustment for Crypto.
. This exists because part of the cash flow in Crypto will be FOMO due to the boom of traditional finance. So when part of this cash flow escapes from Crypto, it will cause a short-term adjustment.
✍🏻 Given the timing for Q2 to be the Bitcoin season, Q3 to be the time of traditional finance, we cannot ignore this year's Q4 which is the Altcoin season. Just string together all the data I've mentioned and you'll see, or if you're too lazy, you can compare the cycles of previous uptrend seasons and you'll see.
