The Bitcoin halving is arguably the most important event in the blockchain due to its function. As such, in most cases, it plays a major role in when a crypto bull run begins and how long it lasts. While each bull run is triggered slightly differently, data from the years leading up to the halving suggests that it follows a fairly tight schedule.
Bitcoin maintains historical trend
While Bitcoin has deviated from many historical trends for much of this year, leading to speculation that the next bull run will not follow established trends, the digital asset’s current patterns suggest these widespread speculations may be wrong.
In a chart shared on Twitter, anonymous cryptocurrency analyst @stockmoneyL made the argument that Bitcoin could indeed follow the trend of previous bull markets. The chart shows that the number of days between the bear market bottom and the next halving event has consistently maintained a fairly tight schedule.
Judging from the chart, if Bitcoin follows the same timeline, the bull run will actually begin in 2024. There are 532 days between the 2022 bottom and the next halving, which is in line with the average of 530 days between cycles, after which bull runs often begin.
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If this also happens in this case, then the expectation of starting the bull run in 2023 will be invalidated. Then, the start of the bull run will be delayed to mid-2024, similar to other bull runs that started after the halving event.
Where will BTC land in the bull market?
In the past few bull runs, the price of Bitcoin has consistently surpassed previous all-time highs by a large margin. For example, during the 2017-2018 bull run, the price of the digital asset hit an all-time high of $19,000. Although it was significant at the time, it is nothing compared to the next ATH.
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In 2021, at the peak of the last bull run, the price of BTC reached as high as $69,000, more than three times the previous all-time high. This trend has persisted in all bull runs, and if it repeats, the price of BTC could reach $150,000 in the next bull run.
Now, the exact time frame depends on the source of the prediction. However, looking at Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs, they occurred about a year after the halving and the start of the bull run. So, in this case, it would set a new ATH for the digital asset in 2025.