I just fell asleep and didn't show off in advance. The data has been released. I have said before that starting from May, the data will be guided in the direction of interest rate cuts. Today's two data, one strong and one weak, are the product of extreme expectation management. And it highlights the embarrassment of narrow space for maneuvering.

Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May:

Previous value 67.4, forecast value 67.5, published value 69.1

What strong consumer confidence wants to convey is: income has increased - there is money in the pocket - so dare to spend money - the economy is strong - there is no risk of recession or soft or hard landing - then my Federal Reserve is ready to continue building upstairs

US one-year inflation rate expectations in May:

Previous value 3.5%, forecast value 3.4%, published value 3.3%

Inflation expectations continue to fall - don't panic, interest rate cuts are coming soon

Two data are released at the same time, and the positive and negative basically offset each other, but the expectation of interest rate cuts is slightly enhanced. Then the market will rise slightly. Then when liquidity dries up at the weekend, the ups and downs of small funds may come again. In fact, we can think that since the unexpected non-agricultural data on May 3, the market has been digesting the expectation of interest rate cuts. We can even think that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been priced in, and now it is just a wide range of fluctuations due to emotions.

Before the interest rate cut comes, I can't help but guess what the next narrative line will be? For example, will it be a batch application for ETFs? After the big cake ETF was passed, we said that in the future, the currency circle will gradually become institutionalized and retail-oriented like the US stock market; of course, it does not mean that there are no retail investors. In such a mature market as the US stock market, there are still a large number of retail investors and arbitrage space; we don't need to be pessimistic about this.

But for a long time to come, the increase in the proportion of institutions will still be a major trend. So how to achieve this process, how can institutions enter the market in compliance? The US Congress has given the answer. You must know that under the US political system, the proposals of congressmen are by no means aimless and aimless. Instead, they have very clear interests. Judging from the FIT21 bill, US capital will accelerate the embrace of cryptocurrencies, adopt a more friendly attitude, and make up for the time and interests lost due to SBF/FTX.Then the ETF wave that we dared not think of before may unexpectedly accelerate. For example, the controversial#SOLETF often mentioned by @Phyrex_Ni has not been optimistic about the ETF because of the suspicion of securitization. But if you substitute the nature of interest rate cuts, data changes and caliber changes. As long as you really want to pass it, you can relax the approval standards or directly say that it is not a security. After the success, there will be great scholars to debate for you.

If this is true, then the Dragon Quest#GMEGameStop story of ETF series VS MEME series, institutions VS leeks can continue to be staged, then the hype target, news hot spots, and new narrative logic will all come naturally? Then the tired market sentiment will not be lifted again? Then new money and new leeks will not come in? Why not?

The above is a happy weekend YY, but it is not impossible to open your mouth