First is the perspective from Future Data:
- When the market flew in surprise, $ETH turned into a unicorn with a breakthrough of more than 20%, it was surprising that the data recorded that the Short rate was gradually becoming more overwhelming.
"Is it because long orders have gradually closed their orders?"
- The answer is no! Looking at the remaining data, it can be seen that around the time the short rate began to increase, OI also opened in large quantities.
-> So the long ratio is gradually decreasing not because of order closure but because of strong fomo defensive shorts. And this has led to a familiar consequence, which is....the increase in liquidation above. Attractive price scans & absorbs these fertile areas. And this is just Future's perspective, let's move on to the next part.
Second is the data perspective from the Options market.
- The current area of ETH's 3k7 mark is the realized price area with the strongest volatility from many expectations and different maturity dates.
- In other words, once we leave this fighting zone, it will be a very strong increase or a very sharp decrease.
"So, faced with the risk of such strong fluctuations, what should Whale positions bet on?"
- Right at the time ETH was galloping, there were 2 Option positions opened that expired on May 31, with the maturity value of both being more than $250m. (So that everyone can imagine how big this order is, imagine that the largest single purchase of ETH on Binance was just over $53 million.
"So what did that crazy mass expect?" - They expect that
$ETH will rise above the $3720 mark. Because only when they pass this milestone will they start to make a profit. And the peak profit mark will be somewhere around the 4100-4200 mark.
- Even though ETH is currently around the $373x mark, with my experience, just breaking even is not enough motivation for them to close their orders.
-> Whale is setting up for a push Combined with the short story that is gradually fomo, forming dense liquidation zones as analyzed above. This is "a dangerous trap for the short side"
Which is also our focus today.
And if you think about it from another angle,
The market will sooner or later receive positive incentives in the near future.