Good morning, brothers. ETH surged 20% yesterday. How to operate today?

Before the rumor that ETH's ETF was going to be approved, we analyzed for several consecutive days,

and reminded everyone of this opportunity.

The key point of the recent market is whether ETH's ETF will be approved tomorrow.

If ETH's ETF is going to be approved tomorrow,

will it be cheated by the dog dealer?

What is the probability of approval?

Although everyone says it will be approved,

will there be a black swan reversal?

After all, the dog dealers in the currency circle are too cunning and have slaughtered us many times.

The basis for approval is that the SEC notified the exchange to accelerate the update of the 19B-4 document on the spot Ethereum ETF,

but most of the news sources are gossip,

which is worth vigilance.

In addition, we look at two situations:

(1) If it passes, there are two situations

- Then ETH will continue to rise, with a probability of 40%

- All the good news will be bad news, and a correction will begin. After all, this is what happened a week after BTC's ETF was passed, with a probability of 60%

(2) If it does not pass, there will definitely be a big correction

Let's take a look at the on-chain data:

(1) More than 10,000 BTC flowed into the exchange yesterday

(2) Stablecoins have been flowing out in large quantities

Last night, Federal Reserve officials said that they would wait for three to five months for data to continue to weaken.

The Federal Reserve will consider cutting interest rates at the end of 2024.

The road to rate cuts is still long.

This wave of rise did not follow the rise of Shanzhai, so the risk began to increase.

After the CPI was released, Yuguan firmly believed in the long-term and asked everyone to hold for the long term. Yesterday, they made a lot of money.

But the market is changing rapidly, and we must update our views in a timely manner according to the situation.

We cannot be stubborn.

In the short term, there are more shorts than longs in the past few days.

So it is recommended to reduce positions to less than 50%.

If it really passes, there will be profits. If it does not pass, it will be a hedge. #以太坊ETF批准预期