Let's talk about the macro aspect. Yesterday, Iranian President Raisi died in a plane crash. Many friends asked about the impact on the currency circle. I personally think that the impact will not be too great. Iran's supreme leader has always been Khamenei, so the impact of Raisi's death on Iran's political system is not fatal. The worst impact of this incident is that after investigating the cause of the accident, Iran confirmed that the air crash was an action planned by other countries (such as Israel), which triggered a geopolitical crisis and caused the price of commodities led by crude oil to rise. Inflation in Europe and the United States rebounded again, and the US monetary policy continued to tighten.
At present, the Federal Reserve considers the impact of inflation in formulating monetary policy as only part of it. What is more important is the potential reason. The general tone is certain, and the "holding urine" competition is coming to an end. If there is no particularly major international event (black swan), the direction of monetary policy will basically not change. The current market situation is also what the Americans want to see. The US stock market has reached a new high, the US dollar is high, the economy of the Eastern power continues to be under pressure, and the US debt holdings continue to decrease. In a sense, the Americans are already harvesting. If they are greedy, there will be a risk of "holding themselves to burst", so choosing "enough" in the third and fourth quarters is a result that everyone can accept.
