The overall TVL of the Layer 2 track has recently touched the 10 billion US dollar mark, and the second-layer chain ecosystem presents a "thriving" scene. zkSync still ranks third in the L2 track, second only to Arbitrum and Optimism, with a TVL of nearly 500 million US dollars. Why do you say that the prosperity of the zkSync ecosystem is a false prosperity?

Before answering this question, let’s take a look at the recent TVL trends of Arbitrum and OP, the two big brothers in the second layer. According to L2Beat data, Arbitrum TVL fluctuates in a narrow range around US$6 billion; OP has recently received frequent positive news, and its TVL has also hit a new high, with ATH exceeding US$2.5 billion; the TVL of the two accounts for nearly 85% of the L2 track, occupying an absolute dominant position.

On the other hand, zkSync, affected by the continued fermentation of the "random" airdrop NFT incident in the community a few days ago, has seen a sharp drop in TVL. Funds have flowed out, and most of them have flowed into another zk-Rollup StarkNet that has not issued a coin. The TVL on the SarkNet chain has increased by nearly 34% in a week. Let me first talk about the conclusion: zkSync's on-chain prosperity is based on its potential airdrop expectations, brought by airdrop hunters. At least for now.

Next, we will demonstrate the above conclusion from three points: 1️⃣ the complexity of the on-chain ecology, 2️⃣ the wide application of infrastructure, and 3️⃣ the "random" airdrop event of NFT. p.s. The degree of false prosperity of the on-chain ecology cannot be quantified, but the "pseudo" prosperity of zkSync far exceeds that of Arbitrum and OP.

The complexity of the on-chain ecology represents the ability to innovate, which can bring more diversified application scenarios to users, thereby stimulating user demand. For L2, the complexity of the on-chain ecology ≈ the complexity of Defi on the chain. This kind of Defi Lego with certain Ponzi properties is particularly important for the prosperity of the on-chain ecology.

Let’s first look at the big brother Arbitrum: the leading protocol GMX, with a TVL of $500 million on the chain, is also one of the best decentralized derivatives trading protocols in the current crypto market, and is also one of the few complex defi protocols with a long survival time. In addition, there is Radiant Capital, a lending protocol that has just received funding from Binance. Based on the cross-chain infrastructure of L0, it realizes the application scenario of cross-chain asset lending.

Let’s take a look at the second brother OP: The leading protocol is a 33 DEX Velodrome, based on the innovation of Solidly imitation, and has now become one of the most important hubs of the OP ecosystem, radiating other protocols in the entire ecosystem. Sonne Finance rose based on Velodrome and is currently the largest native lending protocol in the OP ecosystem. Through the bribery and lock-up mechanism, a positive economic flywheel is created to feed back to the OP ecosystem.

In summary, Arbitrum: complex derivatives trading, cross-chain lending and other innovative application scenarios; OP: imitate Ethereum Curve's vote bribery to achieve a positive economic flywheel; it can be said that the complexity of the on-chain ecology is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the prosperity of the on-chain ecology, and complex DeFi Lego must be the basis for a prosperous ecology.

Let’s take a look at the third brother zkSync: SyncSwap is the absolute leader, with a TVL of 82 million US dollars, accounting for nearly half of zkSync’s TVL. I won’t mention the leading protocol here, after all, it has become “famous” recently. On-chain startups and dog-earnings are everywhere, and the main theme is “rug”. Airdrop hunters have supported half of zkSync’s TVL.

After talking about the complexity of the ecosystem, let’s talk about the wide application of infrastructure. OP/ Arbitrum/ zkSync have launched modular stacks for developers to easily start L2/ L3. 1️⃣OP: OP Stack 2️⃣Arbitrum: Arbitrum Orbit 3️⃣zkSync: zkSync HyperChain is currently the most widely used, and it is well deserved to be OP Stack.

After Coinbase announced to build L2 Base based on OP Stack, more and more projects have joined this camp: including but not limited to: 1️⃣Binance opBNB 2️⃣a16z 3️⃣Worldcoin 4️⃣ZORA 5️⃣Manta Network

Syndr, a derivatives trading protocol, recently announced that it would build an L3 application chain based on Arbitrum Orbit. Relativefi, OthersideMeta and other protocols also have the intention to build L3 based on Orbit. On the other hand, zkSync, there is little discussion in the crypto market about its L3 architecture HyperChain, let alone building zk L3 based on HyperChain.

Finally, let’s take a look at the controversial “random” NFT airdrop event of zkSync recently: zkSync officially airdropped NFTs to 10,000 “random” addresses of its ecosystem users. Later, it was revealed that the “random” addresses basically all started with 0x0, and even included some inactive addresses with 0 transactions or only 1-2 transactions. Later, under pressure from public opinion, the official came out to refute the rumor that their definition of “random” was inaccurate and that it was the first 10,000 qualified addresses.

This "random" NFT airdrop event became the trigger for the sharp drop in zkSync TVL. In just one week, the TVL dropped by nearly 80 million US dollars, a drop of more than 16%. At the same time, zkSync's competitor - StarkNet, a potential coin issuance project, saw its TVL increase by nearly 35% during the same period. There is reason to believe that this large increase and decrease in funds between chains is largely caused by the change in strategy of the Mao Party.

This also indirectly proves that there are very few users with real demand on the zkSync chain, and the prosperity of the chain ecosystem is a "pseudo-prosperity", which is a demand derived from the expected issuance of zkSync coins. For the other two big brothers, Arbitrum and OP, both have issued coins. Of course, there is also the expectation of retroactive airdrops after the issuance of coins, but it is undeniable that there are more users with real and diversified transaction needs on Arbitrum/OP.

Here, I can say very subjectively: if there are no users who want to make money, zkSync is nothing. Faced with such an on-chain ecology and "active" users, I dare to ask: Does zkSync dare to issue a coin now? Without the expectation of issuing a coin, it is clear who is more likely to win.

at last

It’s the same old saying: When the tide goes out, you’ll find out who’s been swimming naked.

#layer-2 #zkSync #arbitrum #optimism #starknet