Many newcomers in the cryptocurrency circle asked me why they could never buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. As a 7-year veteran in the cryptocurrency circle, I will tell you a fact: 90% of people buy at the bottom halfway up the mountain, and after selling, they beat their chests and regret selling too early!
You can’t sell at the highest point because you can’t tell when the highest point is. The key to playing with coins is to “follow the trend”. It is not difficult to buy more coins when the price is rising, but if you want to sell during the rising trend, you are optimistic that the price will reach the highest point and start to fall in the next second. This is a counter-trend operation, which is very difficult.
Therefore, do not try to make the most of your profits every time, you must sell at the highest point. Because repeated setbacks will disrupt your trading rhythm. When we play with coins, the most taboo is to act too hastily. If you are not in a good state of mind, you would rather be short than operate blindly.
When Bitcoin rose to $50,000, a bunch of demons and monsters came out to say that it would reach 1 million RMB by the end of the year. As a result, two big crashes severely slapped their faces. Bitcoin fell below 18,000, and the bear market was also aggressive. In a word, you must always be rational when playing with coins, and make a comprehensive analysis of technical and fundamental aspects, plus the guidance of professionals, so as not to be led astray by the market.
Let's take a very simple example: if the stock price rises from 10 to 100, and then falls to 50, you buy the bottom, and if it rebounds to 70 and then falls to 20, if you sell it halfway between 50-70, you are successful, but if you hesitate and don't sell it, and you get 50-20, you are a failure. So if you want to be successful, you not only need to buy the bottom, but also sell the top.
We can summarize the successful experience from the law of historical development: Bitcoin's bull-bear historical law Taking Bitcoin as an example, its main logic is: there are many cycles, and a bull-bear conversion every four years. Some players attribute it to the production reduction every four years. At the beginning of 2013, it was around 100 yuan, and at the end of 2013, the bull market was 8,000 yuan.
2014 is the year of the bear
The lowest price at the end of the bear market in January 2015 was 900 yuan
2016: Fluctuating upward
In 2017, the Mavericks reached $19,666 at the end of the year.
2018 is the year of the bear
Around $3,300 at the end of the bear market in January 2019
Fluctuating upward in 2020
2021 Big Bull November 69000 dollars
Each time it falls about 85% from the top to the bottom, and then rises more than 100 times from the bottom to the new top, and it takes one year and two months to fall to the bottom.
To sum up: the simple suggestion is to start buying Bitcoin when it drops 50% from its peak, and buy it when it drops 80%. When the answerer answered the question, the price was $27,000, so you can start buying it gradually.
Another thing to note is: don’t buy junk coins at the bottom. It should be noted that many investment products have no bottom and their fate is to return to zero.
For example: stamps, coins, altcoins, most delisted stocks, blockchain pets, most blockchain games, most NFTs, etc.
The things that can be bought at the bottom must be those that can almost last forever, and these are likely to turn around over time, such as index ETFs, the top 50 stocks by market value, Bitcoin, spot gold and silver, etc.
Some advice for newcomers to the Bitcoin circle: People who generally hold Bitcoin like to tell you the logic of "inflation". That is, legal currency has been issued, and assets with a limited total amount of Bitcoin, similar to gold, will inevitably appreciate in the long run. It depends on whether you buy this logic. Let me talk about it from the perspective of historical prices. Analyzing the price trend of Bitcoin from 2017 to 2022, the high in 2017 was $20,000, and the low in 2019 was $3,000, a drop of 80%; the high in 2021 was $60,000, an increase of more than three times from the previous high. The low in 2021 was $30,000, a drop of 50%. Analyzing the trend in the past five years, two points can be explained:
1. Bitcoin fluctuates greatly, and it is normal for the high point to fall by 50%-80%, so you should choose the right time to buy, and also pay attention to whether you can bear this risk;
2. The volatility is considerable. After buying at a low point, there is hope for a considerable volatility return. It can be used as another part of the allocation besides cash, real estate, and the stock market, and its value for the elasticity of the return on holdings is valued. For example, if you allocate 10%, it can give you a 30% volatility possibility within 1-3 years. If you lose, you lose 5%, and if you make a profit, you make 30%. This kind of volatility value is incomparable to stocks and cash.
Therefore, if you don’t have much money and are young, it is recommended to increase the proportion of Bitcoin in your investment portfolio, after all, young people need more possibilities (volatility). If you have strong assets, it is recommended to allocate, for example, 10%, to increase the flexibility of holding positions, limit losses, and significantly increase the income of holding positions if you make money.
