What is special about NOT @thenotcoin? Can it be taken over? How to value it?
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Notcoin is one of the mini-programs with the largest number of users on Telegram. It has a simple mechanism and can mine by just clicking.
This is the first time that Binance has launched a TON ecological project. According to the rules of Binance listing that I have sorted out before, there will not be only one coin in a sector, and the next one may be a similar project.
- What is special?
Zero-cost: Any Telegram user can mine by clicking, without any cost
Wide audience: 1.84 million official fans, more than 30 million players who have participated in the game, and 5 million daily active users
Full circulation of tokens: miner output: 78% of this part is 0-cost, no cost
High upper limit of fission and new users: Telegram users have 900 million monthly active users, and the upper limit of users that can be obtained is high
- Can it be taken over? How to value it?
Why take over and participate in Binance's 0-cost mining?
Valuation
TON currently has 24.3 billion US dollars. The market value of several memes that have appeared before is generally not high, and the total circulation of 100 million US dollars is extremely rare. However, according to the meme upper limit of the public chain, 243*4%=972 million.
According to the pre-market transaction of AEVO, the unit price of $NOT is $0.00859, and the total market value is 882 million US dollars, which is the expectation from the market.
The total amount of NOT tokens is 102.7 billion, of which Binance mining accounts for 3 billion, and the mining output in the market is calculated as 15 billion. The initial circulation should not exceed 20 billion. The circulating market value is estimated to be 170 million US dollars, but according to Binance's recent low opening, this estimate is optimistic. I expect that the opening price may be around $0.006, and the corresponding circulating market value is about 120 million US dollars to 150 million US dollars.
However, the output of miners is still produced every day, and it is zero-cost. In the absence of any consumption scenario in the token economic model, it is not suitable for long-term holding.
Trading decisions based on the above information
1. The total market value exceeds 1 billion US dollars, which is overvalued and should be sold directly
2. The circulating market value is below 120 million US dollars, which is what the current market can bear, and this position can be sold, estimated according to the current status of the previous project BB and REZ
3. Long-term holding is not suitable, and the output of zero-cost mining is too much