"If you thoroughly understand the deep principles of probability theory, ergodicity, behavioral economics, and Brownian motion.
You will understand why any gambling (betting on football, horse racing, roulette), 1-3 months of leveraged short-term operations, and cryptocurrency contracts, etc., will eventually end up with zero, which is a mathematical necessity."
I agree with this point of view, but I want to add that there is actually an implicit premise in the conclusion, that is, people who participate in gambling with all their positions, without position management and risk management, will inevitably lose 100% at one time.
If it is assumed that people who participate in gambling really understand probability theory, ergodicity and behavioral finance, and really understand what game they are playing, they can avoid zero.
For example: a person who understands what gambling is all about, he allocates 25% of his personal assets to stocks (broad-based index funds), 25% bonds (mainstream national government bonds), 25% gold, and 25% cash, and rebalances every quarter. Then he uses 30% of the annual investment income to participate in gambling and speculation as a lottery position, so he can escape the fate of zero. (No profit, no participation)
The essence of participating in gambling is to leave your fate to random probability. The extreme case is lottery. Rational people should not use all their net worth to buy double-color balls. But you can buy one or two tickets from time to time to give fate a chance.
The problem is that most people, probably more than 99.99%, cannot control their greedy desires, will get carried away, will gamble with living expenses, will irrationally go all-in, will use high leverage, will not stop losses, and will not recognize that human nature is difficult to fight, or will feel that they are an exception, and eventually go to zero and debt.
So the final conclusion is: Don't predict short-term market conditions, don't play with futures leverage. Don't gamble, you will lose if you gamble for a long time, which is mathematically inevitable.
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