I think the main reason for the current market volatility and decline is the lack of momentum. After the halving, the game between bulls and bears is obvious. In the past, there have been pullbacks and fluctuations in each halving, and the upward trend is unclear. Based on the lack of new narratives, the market needs multiple declines and consolidations to find a better cornerstone and take-off point.
I want to reiterate: every decline in a bear market is a lure for the enemy to go deeper, and the experts die from bottom-fishing; every decline in a bull market is an opportunity to get on board, and the novices die from fear of heights! Every decline in a bull market is for a better rise, and when the last adjustment comes, the bull market will end and the cliff will fall. Now is obviously not the last time.
What we can do now is to wait patiently and not rush! No matter where the price falls, the most important thing is to allocate the chips well so that you have the opportunity to buy at the bottom.
Currently, some popular ones include: AI and DePIN, but there has been no siphon effect like ICO or DeFi, so so far, only Meme is optimistic. Ethereum lacks innovation, and Bitcoin's volatility is too small. Most new entrants are looking for high returns, so Bitcoin and Ethereum will not excite them. Everyone cannot choose a higher return point when entering the market, and can only choose Meme. Meme is the best narrative.
The essence of Meme is a punishment for the lack of innovation in the cryptocurrency world, so before any innovation occurs, ambushing the Meme concept would be a good choice.
The reason for the weak price is that after the Bitcoin halving, everyoneâs expectations have been lowered, and the narrative has nothing new to it, and it is unable to create a big wave to get everyone involved. It requires the siphon effect of a new narrative, that is, the so-called bull market where everyone is willing to take over, rather than an involution where everyone is unwilling to take over.
So at this stage, everyone has a chance, and volatility and decline become the mainstream.
But I think this is a good thing. A rise that is too fast usually leads to a lack of momentum. Adjustment is for a better start, so there will be a copycat bull market in the future. Here are three levels:
1. Bring in fresh blood:
The decline is a feedback from market supply and demand, which means that the rise driven by BTC in the previous stage has become a little weak. There are too many profit-taking orders, and fresh blood is needed. This stage provides a buffer to allow everyone to enter the market and give the new narrative some time to grow.
2. The decline is for a better rise:
The distinguishing feature of the bull market is that there will be at least two to three major midway adjustments during the entire process, and after each adjustment, it will continue to advance rapidly;
Only when the market falls and consolidates or fluctuates downward can some undecided people throw away their chips and redistribute wealth. In a bull market, donât judge the short-term cycle, just judge the top of the emotional value and the high level of historical data. It is right to think more about the escape strategy every day.
3. The essence of finance is not that money disappears, but that money is transferred.
Why does it fall? Because we need to get more chips and let more market participants enter the market, so that the next round can break the shackles of 100,000. Why does it rise? Once we get enough chips, we need to start the market. As for what good news to use to push the market and how high it will go, it is just a matter of operation.
Sometimes the news and technical aspects are often contradictory, and it is often useful to look at sentiment indicators at this time.
For example, many people are now betting on a pullback and going short. They go short immediately when they see a bearish trend, without waiting for a second, and then they lose a lot of money. But you canât do this now. You should look at the long-short position ratio and understand who your opponent is before you make a bet.
Let me say it again, remember, every drop in a bear market is a lure for enemies to go deeper, and experts die from bottom fishing; every drop in a bull market is an opportunity to get on board, and novices die from fear of heights!
Due to the intervention of BlackRock and other institutions, Bitcoin reached a new high before the halving. In terms of time, it was a little ahead of schedule, because historically, it would take some time after the halving to reach a new high. So, this round of market, because it arrived early, it will inevitably use the method of exchanging time for space, and it will continue to rise after it finds a balance point in the top range!
Of course, it may take some time to continue to rise! Wait until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and changes macroeconomic policies. After all, the rise of the market is the evolution of supply and demand! Only when the US policy is loosened and there is enough money in the market can the current volume of the pie further sprint upward!
From a technical perspective, the current market capitalization of Bitcoin is already near the upward trend line since January 18. Once it falls below the trend line, it means that the altcoin will usher in a big outbreak period. At present, the altcoins, led by Ethereum, are the ones that deserve key layout!
The market capitalization ratio of Ethereum has also hit a recent low again. Judging from the market capitalization ratio, Ethereum is currently in an absolute price-performance range, that is, if you see Ethereum at 3,000 or below, you can buy it as soon as you see it. If you continue to invest regularly, it is only a matter of time before you make money!
Since Ethereum is going to rise, it will definitely lead to an explosion in the Ethereum series. SSV, FXS, ARB, OP, STRK, and ETC, which is about to be halved, etc. are all objects that can be focused on!
When making a layout, you must pay attention to the recent unlocking information, especially the large-scale unlocking. Just look at the previous DYDX and ARB to know that when the large-scale unlocking is approaching, it is best to wait until the unlocking is over before considering building a position!
The market received support near 61,000 yesterday, and then began to rise to a high of near 63,300. However, judging from the bottom volume, it is still relatively weak. Without the expansion of volume, short-term support can be ignored. In the future, I believe that the trend will still be mainly weak shocks to continuously test support.
The next key position that everyone should pay attention to is around 58,000. If this position can gain effective support with large volume, then it can be determined with certainty that the market adjustment is over.
In general, the current prices are at an absolute historical bottom, especially for copycats. Perhaps an explosion is not far away! Every pullback or decline is an excellent opportunity to enter the market. Donât hesitate!
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