The big discussion about non-farm data has basically cooled down.
More and more people know that the Fed is unwilling to cut interest rates. I won't ask you for your reasons, just listen to what you are going to do, just listen.
The logic of "Good employment data - strong US economy - Fed will not cut interest rates" is what the non-farm data wants you to deduce.
Take the last non-farm data released in April. Employment exceeded expectations. What are the 300,000 new jobs: 70,000 in medical care, 70,000 in government departments, 50,000 in leisure hotels, 40,000 in construction... It means that more people in society are running to be caregivers, take civil service exams, and engage in the service industry.
If the new jobs are concentrated in manufacturing and high-tech industries, then the economy is indeed strong, but who can see that the economy is very hot now?
People do work very hard to become more competitive, and then at this time they say that because you all have found jobs and the economic situation is very good, you need to cool down, not cut interest rates, or even raise interest rates again, and give you more. Is this reasonable?
The simplest thing is to ignore the cause and effect. The only important point is:
Don't want to cut interest rates, not that you don't need to cut interest rates.
What's more, this is the cryptocurrency circle. Even if there is a large amount of money released, there will be fewer people coming here.
The cryptocurrency circle is driven by emotions. Various macro-favorable policies are one of the factors used to flirt. Without this benefit, there are others, and you can always find a way. The key to emotional pull is still freshness, to see if there is a new narrative, and whether there is a dramatic effect.
For example, if the Fed continues to postpone interest rate cuts or even interest rate hikes after a long drought, you will first think that it will be the same next time. Then, at a certain time, there is a sudden and unexpected interest rate cut and money release, and the market sentiment will be pulled up all of a sudden. At this time, the reaction amplitude and speed of the cryptocurrency circle must be greater than other markets.
