News
The Federal Reserve has taken an "hawkish" stance again. First, it will raise interest rates a few more times this year, and secondly, it will investigate the bank collapses in the first half of the year. Raising interest rates is bad news, and investigating bank collapses is also bad news!
I have mentioned the reasons for the rate hike in my previous article. You can look it up. Now let’s talk about banks. I don’t know if you have paid attention to them in the first half of the year. First, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, then First Republic Bank was acquired by JPMorgan Chase, and then Pacific West Bank plummeted and triggered circuit breakers! In the end, all the good news flowed into risky markets, such as Bitcoin.
These two pieces of news can be said to be absolutely negative, but we cannot rule out the possibility that the market makers are manipulating the market. We should continue to follow the market, as the negative news has not yet dissipated.
Review the disk
Yesterday's K-line went up first and then down, mainly exploding retail investors with small positions. At the current price (30,500 US dollars), Ethereum, the second brother, still follows the big brother, but it falls sharply and rises a lot. If you do it in the right direction, Ethereum's current returns will be higher than Bitcoin!
Macro Review of the Most Popular ETF Events Recently
ETF is also a very important narrative logic for cryptocurrency. In 2013, when Bitcoin rose from RMB 1,000 to RMB 8,000, a major driving force was the ETF hearing held in the United States. The ETF story has been hyped for 10 years.
Grayscale is actually a core driving force behind the rise in coin prices in 2021 and 2022. Grayscale is a very interesting innovation. It uses a good arbitrage model to lock a lot of coins into the Grayscale fund, but it can only enter but not exit, so it brings a large inflow of US dollars, leading to a round of Bitcoin price increases. And ETF may be a large-scale Grayscale.
The next thing worth observing is when a large number of ETFs will pass. Whether traditional funds are from an asset allocation perspective or a risk aversion perspective, buying ETFs directly from these brokerage banks means that a large amount of funds will flow into Bitcoin. Major assets such as coins and Ethereum. This will also be a very critical event.
Three events that retail investors should pay attention to in the second half of the year
The entire cryptocurrency industry is still in a state of re-finding narrative logic. However, there are still several major events in the industry that deserve attention.
1. First, Ethereum will have an upgrade in the second half of the year to improve performance;
Secondly, L2 will be launched on the mainnet within the next 6-12 months - most likely 6 months. A series of second-layer networks including Scroll and ZKS are striving to be the first to gain a better first-mover advantage.
Once Ethereum is upgraded, the performance issues that have plagued the entire blockchain industry for the past decade may be gradually resolved, perhaps with a 10-fold performance improvement, from the current several hundred TPS to around a thousand TPS. In the future, through hardware acceleration and other methods, it will be able to reach tens of thousands of TPS. This will bring about a relatively large wave of performance improvements, and by then the blockchain will finally be able to run some high-daily-active applications and conduct some low-cost transactions.
2. The second consensus is that private keyless wallets based on MPC technology and AA smart wallets on the chain may gradually form a unified standard with the launch of L2, thus bringing about large-scale promotion and application. The second-layer network actually gives users an AA wallet natively from day 1. This may become the default configuration for users in the future, which will greatly lower the user threshold.
Once the performance of blockchain is initially resolved and the user threshold is further lowered, there may be a large wave of application attempts and explosions, and a large influx of users.
3. The third important issue is the application of traditional institutional ETFs. Since June this year, many traditional financial institutions have applied for cryptocurrency spot ETFs, and it seems that the possibility of approval is very high. A hard timeline is Q1 of next year, around the end of March, when the SEC must respond whether to approve the ETF. (Fund inflow)
summary
The price of Bitcoin is still in a stage of ups and downs. Focus on the upper 31000 and the lower 29400. Maintain the strategy of high-altitude and low-multiple! If it falls below without pulling back or rising above, this shock market is over.
