Strong thinking: probability power

In our lives, we face all kinds of choices at all times. Behind every choice, there is a probability of success or failure.

Weak thinking tends to get certain things, and he does not want probability power. The strong thinking is just the opposite. Every time he chooses, he is willing to bet according to the probability of success. Regardless of success or failure, win or lose, he always insists on betting like this.

Please note that cherishing probability power does not mean that you should gamble, but that you should jump out of your intuition and instinct and think about every choice you make with probability thinking.

The weak do not cherish probability power, not that they do not gamble, but they are more likely to gamble on things with extremely small probabilities. For example, spending money to buy lottery tickets, two dollars at a time, wanting to have a dream of getting rich. And the leeks always want to buy 100 times the currency, which is the same way of thinking.

For example, let's see how the rich think. Zuckerberg, the boss of Facebook, just founded Facebook for 4 months when someone offered $10 million to acquire his company. Two years later, Yahoo offered $1 billion to acquire it. Of course, there were many opportunities in the meantime. Google, News Corporation, etc. had the intention to acquire the company. Each bid was a chance for Zuckerberg to make a fortune and live a life of luxury, but Zuckerberg refused every time. Do you want to get 1 billion right away, or get 100 billion in a few years with a probability of a few percent? This is a choice.

A startup may not be profitable at the beginning, but investors have calculated the future of the industry, the quality of the entrepreneur and the entrepreneurial team, and the future market risks with probabilistic thinking, and gave a valuation. Although this valuation is paper wealth, it contains a series of probabilistic calculations, and it is the real market pricing. Venture capitalists just keep betting, keep betting, and after many times, as long as there is a big profit, all the money will come back.

Therefore, venture capital is not what it looks like from the outside, gambling, guessing steel coins, it is a wealth game with a precise algorithm, and institutional investment always looks at probability!