Investment depends on the cycle, and the cycle can be large or small. The big cycle of this round of Bitcoin is very obvious, starting from 15,000 at the beginning of 22 years, and ending at the end of 25 years and 26 years. In fact, it also corresponds to the Fed's turning point from raising interest rates by 75 basis points to raising interest rates by 50 basis points, and ending the interest rate cut cycle at the end of next year, which lasts about 3 years.
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In fact, the entire complete cycle is 4 years, corresponding to the Kitchin cycle and the complete Fed's interest rate hike and cut cycle, and also corresponds to Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle (do you think that Bitcoin's 4-year halving is just a random idea?)
In the cycle, time and space must echo each other (the space here refers to the price), and neither party can go too fast or too slow, otherwise one party must stop and wait for the other party, so that there will be completeness of the cycle.
Bitcoin went from 15,000 to 73,000, and it took one year and three months, which I call the repair market here. After seven consecutive positive days on the monthly line, the upward trend came to an abrupt halt. This round of upward trend has already overdrawn part of the price of bitcoin in advance due to the approval of ETFs, so the rest is also at the monthly level.
This round of rest corresponds to the current stubborn inflation in the United States, that is, it will rest until the US inflation is confirmed to resume the downward trend, or the US economy has a hard landing, and the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates. The previous expectation was in June, and it is likely to be postponed at present. This is why I said that there will be a rest of about 3 months, and then the small cycle of the repair market will be completed.
After the repair market is completed, the slow bull market and the sprint market will start, and the sprint market is the shortest small cycle.
