Bitcoin extended its record price run into 2024, fueled by the halving that halved the top cryptocurrency's issuance over the weekend, along with the Commission's approval of a spot bitcoin ETF Securities Trading (US SEC, CVM). While bitcoin prices are currently tied to the global liquidity situation as determined by US interest rates, the approval of a spot ETF marks an important milestone in the recognition of bitcoin as a treasury. store value.
Thales Freitas, CEO of exchange Bitso Mexico, shared this view in a conversation with Investing.com Brasil at the Rio Web Summit on Wednesday. He reflected on Bitcoin's historical journey leading up to the halving, noting differences in this year's trajectory.
Below is a conversation with Bitso CEO's market analyst:
Investing.com: Bitcoin price is trading sideways between $65,000 and $70,000. Following the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs and the halving event, how do you see the market in the next six months?
Thales Freitas: Whenever there is a halving event, before there was a huge price increase, now there is a significant correction that is closely related to US interest rates, because they determine liquidity of the market.
After the halving, it is common to sell off, this time a little earlier than before, as happened with the recent recovery. However, I believe that Bitcoin is an extremely scarce asset, because 1 BTC is always 1 BTC.
When looking at the United States, debt is growing at 8% annually, which is very high. The IMF itself also stated that it is concerned about the trend of the US debt trajectory. This is the scenario that makes me more optimistic, wishing for more bitcoin.
Inv.com: Do you believe that Bitcoin tends to become a store of value even if its price is currently tied to market liquidity conditions?
TF: Bitcoin has always been associated with “digital gold,” but there was a sell-off after the Covid-19 outbreak and it had a lot to do with interest rates.
But with the trend of more institutions participating, Bitcoin supply decreasing, volatility will be greatly reduced. It remains a volatile asset and will remain so for the next 10 years.
The trend is for Bitcoin to become a much less volatile asset for future generations, similar to gold, which is a reserve asset in times of inflation. Bitcoin will be seen as protection when investors buy, whether through an ETF or other means.
Inv.com: Does Bitcoin have similar characteristics to assets located in high-value areas?
TF: Yes, especially in a valuable and densely populated area in a country that respects private property. These areas often require the demolition of one building to construct another.
When the SEC approved the ETF, it was a moment that confirmed the thesis of Bitcoin as a long-term asset.
Inv.com: After the bitcoin price surge, altcoin season has historically arrived. Will it happen this time? Could it be different because these blockchains are related to other projects like payments and tokens?
TF: Most of my personal portfolio is in Bitcoin. Sometimes I consider buying an altcoin for a creative project. With the exception of Solana and memecoins which also performed amazingly, altcoins have disappointed somewhat in the current rally, however, I see opportunity.
In previous cycles, the order was bitcoin, altcoins, memecoins and NFTs. This time it's a bit of a reversal, with bitcoin, memecoin and some NFTs rising a lot and altcoins falling by the wayside.
There are projects that are already well underway, but I think some will be abandoned because there isn't enough space for all of them. And Bitcoin is the reference asset and there are other assets worth having in the portfolio.
