How long will the decline of Bitcoin last? Where can I buy the bottom? When will the main rise of altcoins come?

The recent continuous decline of the market reminds me that history always repeats and cycles. Next, let us look at the source of this market decline from a historical perspective, and how long it is expected to last?

Why did it soar after the halving?

First of all, the halving of Bitcoin has halved the mining reward, reduced the supply of new Bitcoins, and increased the mining cost. In order to maintain the operating costs of miners, under the mediation of supply and demand, the price of Bitcoin is bound to rise, otherwise miners will not maintain the operation of the Bitcoin blockchain if they earn too little.

Why did it rise for a long time before the halving?

This is easy to understand. The expectation of Bitcoin's halving has driven institutions and retail investors to buy BTC.

Why did it fall sharply in the month closest to the halving?

When the halving is approaching, market sentiment has been pushed to the highest point. When the expectation is coming, it is a sign of bad news. The core purpose is to wash out retail investors who got on board in the expectation of halving. Because all secondary markets are zero-sum games, it is impossible for everyone to make money. Only by washing out retail investors through a big drop can big investors have the opportunity to get on board again at a low point. And the expected arrival is the best bearish point. This historical law also appeared when the US BTC spot ETF was passed on January 10 this year.

After deriving this historical law, we can easily find that there is a high probability of a big drop before and after the halving to wash out retail investors as much as possible. I think today is not the end, and it will continue for several days until all retail investors are washed out enough, and it may even fall to 58,000-55,000.

How long will this wave of decline last?

According to the peak of the decline before the halving in the previous two cycles:

15% drop after halving in 2016: 760 in June 2016 - 650 in July 2016

50% drop after halving in 2020: 9900 in February 2020 - 5000 in March 2020

24 years of decline? %: March 24, 73787 - ?

If calculated based on the 15% of the halving in 2016, the bottom is 62,000

If calculated based on the 50% in 2020, the bottom is 37,000

If calculated based on an intermediate value of 20% to 30%, the bottom of this big drop will be in the range of 52,000 to 58,000.

What should we do at this stage?

Maintain the existing funds and positions, don't get carried away easily, only rational investors can really make money in the bull market.Clear positions in time when the market is clearly bearish, so that when the market falls, there are enough bullets to keep copying the desired bottom.

As for which tracks can be ambushed in advance and when to ambush altcoins, I have written about them in my other articles. If you can't find them, you can follow me and click on my avatar to find me. I will continue to update more articles about the crazy plan of 10-100 times the Bitcoin after halving. #比特币减半 #WIF #SHIB #PDA