The bloodbath before the halving, countless people fell to zero in their sleep. How long will it fall?

The bloody scene of March 12, 2020 has never been forgotten.

On April 13, 2024, nearly 300,000 people fell to zero in their sleep.

In the early morning of April 13, the virtual currency market was bloodbathed again. Among them, the price of Bitcoin once plunged by more than $2,000, from $67,100 to below $65,000. The copycat was even more bloodbathed.

This month, a major event in the virtual currency market is about to take place-Bitcoin "halving", which has attracted much attention because it will be directly related to the supply and demand of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin "halving" event refers to the halving of the reward obtained after the production of a new block, which occurs approximately every four years. The specific time depends on the block generation speed of the Bitcoin network, which will reduce the supply of Bitcoin. The halving of block rewards means that it will take longer for all Bitcoins to enter the market.

Regarding the upcoming "halving", Kevin, founder of Web3 CD and CEO of Full Speed ​​Innovation Capital, pointed out in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that "the difference between this round of Bitcoin market and the previous ones is that the previous cryptocurrency bull market was after the "halving", but this time it is before the halving, so this round of market may go out of the way different from the previous ones. However, at least for now, the cryptocurrency market as a whole is still in a relatively disordered state, and no one can better predict the next trend."

There are two things to pay attention to. One is the high sideways trading of Bitcoin, the risk of a copycat falling, and the other is the risk of washing the market after the long-term digestion of the positive news before and after the production cut.

Production cut is a time point. After the production cut, the decline in output will drive the rise of Bitcoin. This can be realized before or after the production cut. However, judging from the trend of this bull market, before the production cut, Bitcoin was pushed to a record high due to the support of ETFs and expectations of interest rate cuts.

The big bitcoins are sideways, the copycats are falling, and the recent plunge has caused a large number of people to go bankrupt. Those with full spot positions will definitely feel great psychological pressure.

In the middle of the bull market, although everyone knows that there will be more booms in the future, it is difficult to remain indifferent if the profits retreat to the level of April 13.So no matter when, we have to invest within a reasonable range. If we exceed our ability, we will be scared to sell our stocks in a crash. A reasonable range of positions, and at the same time, a part of this part of the positions should be reserved to prevent such a sharp drop.

With the reserved funds, you can do Bian mining, and some large project pledge activities. Although the profit is not as high as buying coins, it is very safe, and it can also prevent you from always filling your positions. Large funds always have to make the best configuration (big cake, ether, BN mining), and don't ignore the principal risk for short-term violence.

Finally, let's talk about the market in the next two months.

Last year, it was expected that there would be a market a few months before the production cut. Now this process has been completed. In the future, we should pay attention to two things: interest rate cuts and US stock dynamics. After the interest rate cut, will the American money flow to the US stock market?

Some people thought it would in the past, but I think the possibility is small. First, as long as the interest rate is cut, the depreciation of the US dollar is almost a foregone conclusion. Secondly, the high position of the US stock market itself has certain risks. Those who are left in the bank by the Americans at a 5-point interest rate will not risk going to the US stock market again. So either go to gold, go to Japan, or go back to other countries.

If the US stock market falls, it will be a short-term negative for Bitcoin, but it is only a short-term one. There is an essential difference between stocks and blockchain. Americans are free, and they will try their best to keep their money in the pool they can control. Gold is a way to go out, but it is too monotonous, and the US stock market is high.

Personally, I think that after the ETF is passed, once the interest rate is cut, more people will come in. Some people will say that Bitcoin is so high, how can it still come in? In addition to Bitcoin, there are many other small plates to choose from.

Even if this round of SOL was promoted by the Americans, it has changed from a small pool to a large pool. ONDO also has the shadow of BlackRock behind it, and there are actually many more. The opportunity lies in the circle of Americans. The previous SOL chain dog, the recent runes, and the new inscriptions were all hyped by them first. The future bull market needs to pay more attention to this circle.

In addition, some people say that the price of bitcoin is too high. In fact, the price of bitcoin is always high for retail investors, but it is never high for dog dealers (a small group). For the group of big guys who control 70% of the global bitcoin, it should not be too difficult to drive up the small amount of bitcoin outside to 200,000.It's just that this process should be a bit tortuous.

Here's a predicted timeline:

It is expected that the interest rate cut will be in September at the latest. Two or three months before the interest rate cut, we will see a relatively low position that will last for a period of time, giving ETFs time to enter the market again. This time, it may be the last opportunity to enter the future bull market. I think the big bull market will not start later than the end of June.

Therefore, control the position and rhythm when bottoming out. Bottom-fishing is not completed in one go, but should be completed over a period of time. No one can absolutely predict the lowest point of this callback in the short term.