On Thursday (April 18), Bitcoin rebounded slightly to $61,500. The Fed officials jointly released hawkish speeches, causing the price of the currency to fall below $60,000 overnight. The largest event in the cryptocurrency circle, Token2049, was rarely suspended. Heavy rains in Dubai caused a disaster, and all large and small events were declared cancelled.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledged that recent economic data showed a lack of progress in combating inflation, suggesting that the timing of a rate cut could be delayed until later.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester noted that inflation was higher than expected and the Fed needed to be more confident about the trajectory.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that inflation progress has slowed and may even stop. Bowman further stated that monetary policy is currently restrictive, and time will tell whether it is "restrictive enough."
The hawks attacked together, and cryptocurrencies and the US stock market were the first to be hit.
The four major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red on Wednesday, and the sell-off in April intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 45.66 points, or 0.12%, to 37,753.31 points. The Nasdaq fell 181.88 points, or 1.15%, to 15,683.37 points. The S&P 500 fell 29.2 points, or 0.58%, to 5,022.21 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 153.22 points, or 3.25%, to 4,567.31 points.
Bitcoin once fell below $60,000, reaching a low of $59,632. However, it soon returned to the $61,000 level.
According to CoinGlass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidation exceeded US$230 million, and more than 75,000 people were liquidated.
The biggest cryptocurrency event is rarely suspended
In addition to the "disaster" news about Bitcoin prices, Token2049, the largest event in the cryptocurrency circle, is also facing the crisis of suspension.
On April 16, Dubai experienced a rare weather anomaly. In just 12 hours, the country received heavy rain equivalent to a year's rainfall.
The Token2049 event originally scheduled to be held in Dubai on Thursday this week attracted Web3 industry elites from all over the world to take a long-distance flight to participate, but unexpectedly encountered an abnormal weather event.
In the event list previously announced by Token2049, we can see that many cryptocurrency sponsors and project owners choose to hold yacht parties, or hold lectures or gatherings in high-altitude restaurants and bars. More teams choose the beautiful outdoor scenery of Dubai Bay, which can be said to be full of imagination and beautiful pictures.
However, amid the violent storm, the scenes of various off-site activities were horrific, and all participants were still staying in hotels and airports. Events of all sizes had to be postponed or cancelled.
In fact, Dubai's drainage infrastructure has little experience in dealing with heavy rains, which is also an important reason for the flood disaster. In Dubai, due to the extremely low annual rainfall, the local government has not invested in and built large-scale drainage facilities. At present, all flooded areas in Dubai rely on manual pumping and shoveling of water. Near the Palm Islands, sharks have appeared in the streets and restaurants. It may take several days to drain the flood.
Has Bitcoin price hit bottom? Analysts: Indicators of whales borrowing money to buy at the bottom are beginning to emerge
The hottest topic in the crypto market right now is, “Has the bottom arrived?”
Benson Sun, an opinion leader in the crypto community, tweeted that he has a way to judge the market bottom, which is the trend of Bitfinex USD lending rate and Binance USDT lending rate. When the Bitfinex USD lending rate curve crosses the Binance USDT lending rate curve, it often represents the bottom of the market.
His reasoning is: "Binance USDT interest rate can be regarded as a sentiment indicator of Binance users' spot leverage. When the market corrects sharply, fewer people are willing to borrow money to leverage, and interest rates will decline accordingly. However, there are very few retail investors on Bitfinex, and only whales can shake the interest rate market in a short period of time. If the Bitfinex USD interest rate rises rapidly in a short period of time, it is often a symbol of whales borrowing money to buy at the bottom."
Benson mentioned that during the entire bear market when Bitcoin fluctuated between $16,000 and $30,000, the green line was above the orange line, and since entering the bull market in October 2023, market sentiment has reversed. The orange line has become the norm above the green line. Coincidentally, since the bull market, the period when the green line briefly crossed the orange line was the relative bottom area of the bull market.
"Is there such a coincidence in the world? Of course not. After the big drop on April 14, we happened to enter this golden cross stage again. The objective data is here, and it depends on you how to interpret and operate it," Benson wrote at the end.
It is worth noting that data from blockchain analysis company Santiment also pointed out that despite the recent sharp drop in Bitcoin, whales have not sold their holdings. Since March 1, major whale groups have continued to hoard coins.
Data shows that wallets holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins have accumulated an increase of 43,489 bitcoins; wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins have accumulated an increase of 80,544 bitcoins; and wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 bitcoins have accumulated an increase of 91,732 bitcoins.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
CMTrade said that Bitcoin RSI is below the neutral zone of 50, MACD is above the signal line and negative, and the configuration is mixed.
Moreover, the price is currently trading below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, which are $61,654 and $62,877 respectively.
“Our pivot point is at $59,610 and our preference is for a rally to $63,800.”
“Alternatively, a downside break of $59,610 will open the way for a test of $58,170 and $57,310.”
