By I Tide Capital
At Bitcoin block height #837188, 20 days before the fourth halving, Bitcoin has reached the $70,000 mark. Market sentiment has subtly changed. Facing the upcoming halving, the bulls and bears are in a fierce game of whether it will repeat the halving or trigger a new narrative.
Tide Capital released its latest research report "6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving" on its official website, which elaborated on the six most important clues and judgments that drive the price of Bitcoin.
This article is an excerpt from a research report that is published publicly. Please log in to Tide Capital's official website to download the full report.
1. Bitcoin: The fourth halving is about to be completed, reducing annual selling pressure by $10 billion
Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving on April 18, 2024, and the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125, further reducing Bitcoin output and selling pressure.
Before the halving, the annual output of Bitcoin was about 330,000, which, based on the price of $65,000, would bring more than $20 billion of selling pressure to the market. After the halving, the annual selling pressure of Bitcoin will also be reduced by half, which is equivalent to a reduction of $10 billion, effectively alleviating the selling pressure of Bitcoin.
2. Bitcoin: After three halvings in history, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply in the following year
Bitcoin has experienced three halvings in history, in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020. The common point is that there was a sharp rise in the year after the halving. At present, there are less than 30 days to the fourth halving. The market has begun to price in the impact of the halving, and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate upward.
3. Bitcoin: Spot ETFs receive accelerated capital inflows, boosting Bitcoin's continued upward trend
On January 10, the BTC spot ETF was approved, which brought in tens of billions of dollars of OTC funds, boosting the continued upward movement of Bitcoin. In previous bull markets, BTC usually had multiple callbacks of more than 20%, but this round of bull market has only a few callbacks and a small callback range, thanks to the continuous inflow of OTC funds.
Take gold ETF for example. After the launch of the first gold ETF, gold ushered in a nearly 10-year bull run, with an increase of more than 400%. Compared with gold, BTC is safer to store, more convenient to trade, and faster to transfer, and has superior value storage characteristics. The current market value of gold is 14.5 trillion US dollars, while the market value of Bitcoin is only 1.3 trillion US dollars. Bitcoin still has 10 times the space to reach gold, and the launch of Bitcoin ETF is more popular than the gold ETF of that year, and the speed of capital inflow is far ahead.
4. Inscription: Bitcoin’s native innovation, halving is expected to usher in the third wave of enthusiasm
In January 2023, Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor released the Ordinals protocol, which allows users to embed data into the Bitcoin blockchain, thereby creating NFT and token assets on Bitcoin, opening up a new way to play in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since its launch, the total number of Ordinals engravings has exceeded 60 million.
Inscription has experienced two waves of enthusiasm. The first wave began in April 2023, when the leading token ORDI rose from $0.005 to $28, an increase of more than 5,000 times in two months. The second wave began in October 2023, when ORDI rose from $3 to $96. OKX and Binance launched the Inscription trading market, driving more Inscription assets to rise.
Inscriptions are a native innovation of the Bitcoin ecosystem, bringing more users and developers to the Bitcoin community, and various new applications and gameplay are constantly emerging. When Bitcoin undergoes its next halving, the market's focus will return to the Bitcoin ecosystem again, and inscriptions will also usher in the third wave of enthusiasm.
5. Rune: The protocol is expected to be launched at the time of halving, and Runestone is expected to become a core asset
Runes Protocol was proposed by Casey Rodarmor, founder of Ordinals. As an improved and upgraded version of the BRC-20 protocol, it aims to provide a highly efficient, highly compatible, and highly scalable Bitcoin asset issuance and management framework. It is expected to be officially launched when Bitcoin is halved, and thus has become one of the mainstream concepts of halving hype.
Rune Stone was launched by Leonidas, the founder of Ordinals browser Ord.io. It completed its initial issuance by airdropping NFTs to 112,383 Bitcoin addresses, and its current market value exceeds $300 million. Rune Stone has become the representative asset of the Rune Protocol. More and more projects have begun to airdrop Rune Stone to users who hold Rune Stone. Rune Stone has a huge imagination space, and its future applications and gameplay are worth looking forward to. In addition, after the Rune Protocol goes online, users who hold Rune Stone can convert it into a homogenous token. In general, Rune Stone has the narrative of "Rune Protocol" + "Airdrop Asset" + "Coin Issuance Expectation", and is expected to become the core asset of the Bitcoin halving market.
6.Meme: Blue-chip NFT mfers issued tokens, with a market value of $200 million from 0 in 12 hours
On March 30, Sartoshi, the founder of the blue-chip NFT project mfers, issued the token mfercoin. In the white paper, he stated that mfercoin is a meme coin with no intrinsic value, no profit expectations, and no prescribed use. He also injected 80% of the tokens into the liquidity pool, and the remaining 20% of the tokens will be airdropped to the mfers community.
The NFT project mfers was launched in 2021 and has set off a PFP craze in the crypto community. It is a well-known blue-chip NFT project. After mfercoin was launched, it achieved a market value of $0 to $200 million within 12 hours with the spontaneous support and dissemination of the community. For the future of mfercoin, in the words of the mfers community, 1$mfer=1$mfer.
