Original author: techub news
Original source: techub.news
At the 2024 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, ARK Invest CEO and Chief Investment Officer Cathie Wood had a fireside chat with HashKey Singapore Director and HashKey Captial CEO Deng Chao. In this conversation, Cathie Wood predicted the latest trends and disclosed the general direction of Ark Invest's investment. The following is the full text of the conversation.
DC: Good morning, everyone! (For today’s roundtable discussion) I feel a little pressure, but I am also very happy and excited. I am from HashKey Capital. Our company is a first-tier institutional investor in the Web3 industry, with an asset management scale (AUM) of over US$1 billion and more than 500 invested projects. We officially started business in Singapore in 2015.
We have invited Cathie Wood to today's roundtable. She has many years of experience in the investment field and we are very happy to have her join us. Before we go into the discussion, I would like to ask Cathie, would you like to say hello to everyone?
Cathie Wood: I am very happy to participate in today's roundtable discussion. It is a pity that I cannot be there in person, but I am very honored to be invited to participate in today's conference. I have just heard many speeches by Hong Kong officials and important leaders, which have greatly encouraged me. I hope that I can also bring you some views and perspectives from the United States today.
DC: The guests invited today are all experts from the blockchain ecology and financial technology fields. Cathie will give us predictions on the mainstream trends and the latest trends.
I would like to ask, what has been the general direction of Ark Investment in the past few years? How will it affect individual businesses or individuals in the blockchain in the future?
Cathie Wood: This is a big question. In the past few years, we can see that Bitcoin and blockchain technology have gradually matured. I think this is a very grand concept. Why do I say this is a very grand concept? Because the Internet financial system from the perspective of Bitcoin is interrelated, and the entire system was not considered in the early days of the Internet in 1990.
All aspects of the current e-commerce and financial systems are beginning to be affected by Web3. The most significant impact is that many developments are still in the early stages. It is a market that needs to be developed by the world. It is cross-border and will affect everyone. As long as you have an Internet connection, you can become a member.
What is very exciting now is that (Web3) has already taken shape, for example, with the help of generative AI, similar to the inventions of the last century such as telephone and television. Through technology, we can greatly increase production capacity and income, and we can also have a better way to live. We can have a better way to enjoy life and private time, and let everyone be more efficient when they are awake.
From 30% to 40% in 2010, we will make a better allocation in the next 5-10 years. Digital assets have gradually become mainstream in the past few years. In addition to Bitcoin, there are other "digital assets" that can not only do better in the bull market, but also help us hedge risks. In the past, regional banks did not perform so well during the crisis, but Bitcoin grew by 40%. This year, we have seen that the currencies of developing countries have depreciated and become less and less valuable, but the value of Bitcoin has continued to rise. More people around the world understand the true meaning of Bitcoin, and (Bitcoin) has the characteristics of being very resistant to pressure and depreciation.
DC: Let’s continue talking about AI. AI is a very hot topic in Silicon Valley and has also attracted widespread attention in Hong Kong.
How do you think AI will be integrated into blockchain through technology in the future, and what impact will it have on Web3?
Cathie Wood: Your question is very good. We have a Bitcoin brainstorming event every month. We also did a podcast sharing when talking about the integration of AI and Bitcoin. We think everyone will learn about the so-called Internet economy. Whether it is Uber or Airbnb, many of them have taken root and blossomed in Asia. In the future, everyone will gradually see its benefits, especially for developing countries, such as Africa, it will bring very rapid changes.
At the same time, we also see that blockchain technology and games will be driven and promoted to a greater extent by AI technology, which is a very interesting field. A few days ago, I saw in the news the investment made by Sony in games and Polygon in Blockchain. It can be seen that more and more funds will be injected into this field.
For example, NFL Rivals and Polkadot, more and more game projects will integrate AI technology and blockchain technology to create more interesting products. NVIDIA was very serious about this in 2014. We can see that NVIDIA's integration of GPU and Gaming has had successful cases. I am very confident that it will definitely be a major area of development in the future.
The core spirit of AI is to give us faster processing capabilities. Games are always at the forefront of the times, and the results in the game field are just around the corner.
I attended a famous conference before, Bitcoin Miami, where we talked about how more and more people will invest in the virtual market and combine it with existing ideas, rather than just purely doing virtual currency transactions. In "F1", we can see that more and more blockchain technology will be injected into it, and more and more users will join us.
DC: Let’s turn back to crypto assets. Congratulations again on the successful launch of ArkInvest’s Bitcoin Spot ETF. What do you think is the most important milestone for the digital asset ETF industry? ETFs exceeding $5 billion? Or are there any clear growth indicators that can serve as milestones?
Cathie Wood: Many people are surprised that transactions have been possible in Europe in the past five years, but they have never had a sudden surge like the United States. There are always many dramatic events in the United States. Everyone knows about the recent lawsuit in the United States. From a regulatory perspective, the SEC and other US regulatory agencies are very resistant whenever they touch Crypto or virtual things. So the lawsuit has allowed us to take a big step forward, slowly making US regulators understand that virtual currencies and Bitcoin can be traded safely, and to a certain extent can be regulated and traded safely. This time they approved a total of 11 ETF projects, which has never happened before and is the first time in history, so we began to do our best in marketing and investor education, and provide investors with more educational training so that they can better understand how to operate in it.
In the United States, many clients have begun to realize that even completely different asset categories can be invested, and more and more institutions and investors are willing to put money into it, because this asset category can be hedged with other areas and is not linked. Of course, Bitcoin also has risks, and there are bull and bear markets, but unlike other currencies (gold) that can be linked to many factors, how can Bitcoin be independent and have its own trend? Because it has asset independence, if you put it in an asset commodity portfolio, because it is not linked to other things, you can increase the asset return rate and share more risks in this way.
Some American investors are very interested in low-linked products and are willing to try them.
DC: Yes, I am very happy that Hong Kong has an open and transparent government leading the development of the industry and providing many good policies. I would like to hear your suggestions. What suggestions do you have for the Asian Web3 community? What suggestions do you have for regulators, investment institutions, and the Asian and Hong Kong markets?
Cathie Wood: I think you are amazing. Hong Kong regulators, such as the SFC, have done a great job, providing a comprehensive management framework that allows virtual assets to be traded, and there are many methods and mechanisms for institutional supervision. Regulatory transparency is crucial to the development of the industry and technology, and it also gives technology development more confidence.
Hong Kong is very different from the United States. Hong Kong develops much faster. I often talk about this at global financial conferences. It can be said that in terms of policy, Hong Kong is a "leader". It strongly encourages the development of innovative technologies and the investment of entrepreneurs. The system of mutual cooperation with the government provides a good model and example for institutions.
Even though there are many uncertainties in the United States, we have seen how to tokenize many assets and how to respond to market demands very quickly in Hong Kong. This is a very good reference for us. The regulatory authorities in Hong Kong have really played a very good leading, leading and exemplary role, and have also enabled companies to develop their businesses globally with such confidence. I am very happy and congratulate Hong Kong for its development.
Before I started, I talked about my admiration and the very good policies proposed by other Hong Kong officials. It is a very good learning for us. This is very important and I sincerely say it, because a healthy and stable environment is crucial to the development of innovative technology industries, investors, and consumer protection.
I also encourage the United States to follow suit. The United States is currently facing regulatory uncertainty and an outflow of talent in the blockchain field. If regulators can treat practitioners better and give them more clarity and more freedom, we will see better results.
My suggestion is to use your regulatory experience to provide entrepreneurs with better opportunities to expand globally.
DC: Thank you, Cathie. I will ask you a question worth a million dollars. It is also a question that everyone here is concerned about. How will the price of Bitcoin develop? I have heard a lot of numerical predictions. I would like to hear your opinion. Some people say 1.5 million US dollars, some say 2.3 million US dollars, and some say 3.8 million US dollars per Bitcoin. Cathie, what is your current prediction? How long will the timeline be?
Cathie Wood: I have been asked this question from different angles. The result of our analysis from multiple angles is that Bitcoin will rise to $1.5 million in 2030. This price prediction comes from a survey of institutions, using the floating ratio and volatility analysis. The previous price prediction for Bitcoin in 2030 was $600,000, but the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF will push the price of Bitcoin to $1.5 million in 2030.
If I gave you this number last year, it would have been closer to $600,000. Why did we add $600,000 to $1.5 million? Because the SEC gave the green light and approved the issuance of spot Bitcoin ETFs for mainstream institutions. If you allocate assets based on modern portfolio theory, 5% of assets allocated to Bitcoin would give us an estimated figure of $1.5 million because we think investment institutions will move in this direction.
DC: Thank you, Cathie, for letting everyone know the price estimate of $1.5 million per Bitcoin. This is the last part of the fireside chat. Thank you, Cathie, for providing us with insightful and interesting live discussions. Goodbye everyone, and let’s give applause to Cathie again.
