Here I will share my own predictions about my positions again
1. There is a high probability that the new high of 73,000 will be broken in April
2. This callback will be the last callback
2. Those who are bearish will continue to miss out on bigger market opportunities
3. Those who try to find a sword by cutting the boat will lose more
I will continue to increase my positions until it is around 60,000 or breaks through 70,000
Liquidity level: The potential liquidity of the current market still comes from shorts. It is worth noting that the accumulation of magnetic areas near 72,000 has dropped slightly, and it is likely that some shorts have closed their positions to stop profit;
The liquidity accumulation at the previous high position remains unchanged. Since the short liquidity has not been liquidated for a long time, there is reason to believe that the main force that has dominated the market price recently comes from spot, not futures;
At the same time, observing the futures contract rates of various exchanges, they are currently at extremely low averages. The leveraged longs on the market have been liquidated, which means that a large amount of short liquidity above is low-multiple funds without high leverage, or hedging funds, so it cannot have a significant appeal to prices.
Therefore, from the liquidity level, longs and shorts are currently in a state of equilibrium, and both sides maintain their original scores;
On-chain data: Due to the sharp increase in miner inflows on Monday, it is necessary for us to continue to pay attention to the potential supply of miners. Here we need to explain that although the daily output of miners and mining companies is only 880~900 BTC, most mining groups do not always sell the BTC they produce immediately. Normal operations are to sell at high prices before and after the halving according to the performance of market prices;
This shipping window was brought forward this year due to the passage of ETFs. Since the BTC price broke through 52,000, miners have always maintained an average daily net inflow of 2,000-3,000 coins from exchanges. At the same time, since the BTC inventory shown by the exchange chain address is always at a low level, it can be explained that the spot transferred by miners to the exchange is mostly sold directly. After all, the main source of cash for unlisted mining companies is selling coins.
