BTC closed at $65,464 on Tuesday, a one-day drop of 6%. The trading volume showed a slight shrinkage compared to the level in the past month. The overall price is still within a wide range and remains volatile.

Good morning! Technical market information: The convergent triangle pattern at the daily level is becoming clearer and clearer. At present, we only need to see that the price has obvious support at the lower edge of the triangle to confirm it, so as to determine whether the tone of the market in the next month will be convergent shock or range shock;

In the short term, we need to pay attention to the blue downward trend line in the figure. If the price can return to the top of the trend line and stabilize, it will most likely continue to test the triangle center of 68,500. According to the price reaction in the white area, we can judge the potential direction of the subsequent market.

If the price rebounds to 68500 and fails to break through, and continues to turn downward, the subsequent market will have a higher probability of breaking through the triangle downwards; if the price successfully breaks through 68500 and stands firm, the subsequent market will have a higher probability of breaking through the triangle upwards; finally, there is one more thing that needs to be done Consider whether the market is likely to go out of the standard callback C wave, that is, the next callback price falls below the previous low. The probability of this happening is low. Once it occurs, the market's convergence triangle shape will most likely become For the descending triangle pattern, you can refer to the similar market situation in 2019;

Considering that the current technical price is still below 68,500, one point is added to the short position; liquidity level: The potential liquidity of the current market still comes from the short position. It is worth noting that the accumulation of magnetic zones near 72,000 has declined slightly, which is likely to be Some short sellers have taken profit and closed their positions;

The liquidity concentration at the previous high position remains unchanged. Since the short liquidity has not been liquidated for a long time, it is reasonable to believe that the main force that has dominated the market price recently comes from spot rather than futures.

At the same time, observing the futures contract rates of various exchanges, they are currently at extremely low averages, and the leveraged longs on the market have been liquidated. This means that a large amount of short liquidity above is low-multiple funds without high leverage, or hedging funds, so it cannot have a significant impact on prices.

Therefore, from a liquidity perspective, the long and short sides are currently in equilibrium, and both long and short parties maintain their original scores; on-chain data: Since the inflow of miners increased significantly on Monday, it is necessary for us to continue to pay attention to the potential supply of miners, here we need To explain, although the daily output of miners and mining companies is only 880~900 BTC, most miner groups do not always sell the output BTC immediately. Normal operations are before and after the halving. According to The performance of market prices, selling on highs;

This window period for shipments has been advanced this year due to the approval of ETF. Since the price of BTC exceeded 52,000, miners have maintained an average daily net inflow of 2,000-3,000 coins into the exchange. At the same time, due to the address displayed on the exchange chain The stock of BTC is always at a low level, which shows that in most cases, the spot transferred by miners to the exchange is sold directly. After all, the main source of cash for unlisted mining companies is selling coins.

Tuesday's miner transfer data has not been updated as of the time of my publication, so I will not make a conclusion analysis for now, and you can wait for subsequent updates; another noteworthy data is the number of new BTC addresses created on the chain, which usually follows the bull market price. There is a highly correlated trend,

But so far, the data has shown an obvious negative correlation. Since the price of BTC exceeded 35,000, the data has been in a long-term downward trend. In my opinion, this is not a very good sign. It seems that under this current market situation, the traditional market’s Retail investors don’t have the same enthusiasm as they did in the past.

ETFs net inflow data: The net inflow on Tuesday was US$40.3 million. Although it is very low, it is at least a net inflow. In theory, it will not have a significant impact on the market and can only have a certain positive effect on sentiment.

The good news is that Grayscale significantly reduced its selling intensity on Tuesday, to only $82 million, but what’s interesting is that Wood’s ARKB has seen a rare net outflow since Monday, and even saw the largest net outflow in history on Tuesday, reaching $87 million!

It stands to reason that under Sister Mu’s crazy CX, ARK’s customers should all be bullish. I don’t know if it is related to the fact that Tesla’s decline has caused disagreements within its customer base. We will not make wild guesses on this. The last to take the plunge was BlackRock, which increased its holdings by US$150 million on Tuesday, making up for the sell-offs of the above two companies. Now that ETFs’ net inflows have turned positive again, let’s give the bulls one point! Summary: Long: 24
Short: 22

At present, it seems that the long and short positions are in a relatively balanced state, and it can be judged that the market is still in a range of fluctuations. Finally, if you think this analysis article is helpful for you to understand the current market situation, please like, forward and comment. This is my biggest motivation to keep updating!