BTC market trend analysis: Will it fall below 55,000? Bull market over?
1. The data point worthy of attention yesterday was the net outflow of ETFs from institutions. The net outflow of ETFs was approximately US$85 million. Grayscale still maintained a net outflow of 300 million US dollars. Institutions once again had net outflows to reduce their holdings, and the decline of #BTC caused panic. Data showed that the selling volume of 0.1 BTC holders increased by 27.5% yesterday.
2. Players holding positions in the range of 59,000-64,000 US dollars were washed out due to price fluctuations and sharp selling due to profit retracements. On the contrary, players near 40,000 increased their holdings. This also shows that long-term players still see short-term gains. The winning player was forced out of the car.
3. The 24H contract trading volume of the entire network is approximately US$227.1 billion, an increase of approximately 96.39% compared to yesterday; the total 24H liquidation volume of the entire network is approximately US$500 million, an increase of approximately 353% compared to yesterday; and the proportion of long liquidation is as high as over 87%. It seems that the main force's intention is very obvious.
4. Yesterday’s plan also mentioned the 66,000 point of view, and the facts happened to be at this position. However, the key support of 68500 has been broken. We temporarily lower the BTC activity area by one box. The view remains unchanged: the door of 58000 has been welded shut. This time the activity area is oscillating and shuffling in the 63000-67000 range. This time will not be too long. , we let the bullets fly.
PS: As for the point of falling below 55,000, this is basically close to the bottoming cost of institutions, which means that the bull market is over. At present, there is no possibility of ending.
*The following data were collected at the time of writing and may be biased due to time changes.
1. Market dynamics and capital changes:
The current total market value is approximately US$2.75 trillion, a decrease of approximately US$0.07 trillion compared with yesterday, a decrease of approximately 2%;
The market value of Bitcoin is approximately US$1.32 trillion, a decrease of approximately US$0.07 trillion compared with yesterday, a decrease of approximately 5%;
The market value of Ethereum is approximately US$404.7 billion, a decrease of approximately US$30.6 billion, or approximately 7%, compared to yesterday; the market value of altcoins (including Ethereum) is approximately US$1.38 trillion, a decrease of approximately US$0.05 trillion, or approximately 3.5%, compared to yesterday.
The current total stock of BTC in all exchanges remains at the lowest level in the past six years. Currently, there are only 1.754 million BTC in exchange addresses across the entire network, a decrease of 20,000 BTC compared to yesterday. Due to the price correction, the market value is relatively high. Compared with yesterday, there were varying degrees of decrease;
2. Transaction volume:
The total transaction volume was approximately US$122.4 billion, an increase of approximately US$52 billion compared with yesterday, an increase of approximately 74%;
Bitcoin transaction volume is approximately US$42 billion, an increase of approximately US$25.3 billion compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately 150%;
The transaction volume of Ethereum is approximately US$19.2 billion, an increase of approximately US$8.8 billion compared with yesterday, an increase of approximately 8%;
The transaction volume of altcoins (including Ethereum) was approximately US$83.8 billion, an increase of approximately US$30.2 billion compared with yesterday, an increase of approximately 56%;
The trading volume has increased significantly compared with the previous two days, which may indicate that the market is more active in bargain hunting;
3. Funding
The total funds on the market are approximately US$151.9 billion, an increase of US$700 million compared with yesterday, an increase of approximately 0.4%;
USDT: The market value is approximately US$104.4 billion, with no significant change compared to yesterday’s market value; the trading volume is approximately US$64.3 billion, an increase of approximately US$26.3 billion compared with yesterday, an increase of 69%;
USDC: Market value is approximately US$32.6 billion, with no significant change compared to yesterday’s market value; trading volume is approximately US$8.83 billion, a decrease of approximately US$4 billion compared with yesterday, an increase of 81%;
The funds on the market have increased significantly compared with yesterday, and the market outlook is still bullish.
4. Contract data
Contract positions across the entire network are approximately US$74.7 billion, a decrease of approximately 7.2% compared to yesterday;
The 24H contract trading volume across the entire network was approximately US$227.1 billion, an increase of approximately 96.39% compared to yesterday;
The total 24H liquidation volume on the entire network is approximately US$500 million, an increase of approximately 353% compared to yesterday;
Among them, Bitcoin contract holdings are approximately US$36.3 billion, a decrease of approximately 5.7% compared to yesterday.
Bitcoin contract trading volume was approximately US$94.4 billion, an increase of approximately 119.3% compared to yesterday.
The liquidation volume of Bitcoin in 24H was approximately US$135 million, the liquidation volume of long orders was approximately US$97.03 million, and the liquidation volume of short orders was approximately US$37.51 million;
Judging from the contract data, the trading volume and liquidation volume have increased compared with yesterday, mainly due to the increase in the liquidation volume of long orders.
5. ETF data
The total trading volume of Bitcoin ETF was approximately US$3.46 billion, a decrease of approximately US$800 million compared with yesterday, a decrease of approximately 18.7%;
The total market value of Bitcoin ETF is approximately US$61.247 billion, a decrease of approximately US$850 million compared with yesterday, a decrease of approximately 1.4%;
The total assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs are approximately US$57.852 billion, a decrease of approximately US$500 million or 0.8% compared to yesterday.
