Here’s my take on the Ethereum ETF: Broadly speaking, the SEC has three options:

  1. Approval of an ETH ETF in May or August – straightforward, with the Grayscale ruling, futures ETF approval, correlation analysis and years of precedent being treated as a commodity. Larry Fink went on TV and said he wanted the $11 billion trapped in ETH to be fully redeemed. The SEC could then draw a hard line and say it would no longer approve ETFs for other cryptocurrencies because there is no precedent for futures ETF approval for other currencies. Note that if it's August instead of May, it's probably because they need more time to get everything ready, so they'll probably ask the first in line to withdraw and resubmit, and then try their best to meet the BlackRock deadline Finish.

  2. Using weak reasons to reject an ETH ETF (e.g. insufficient correlation analysis - which has been thoroughly refuted, but they will likely claim they need more time for analysis, etc.) If we choose this route, it may eventually be approved. Probably relatively quickly.

  3. Outright rejection. This would likely involve revoking the approval of the ETH futures ETF. There are many reasons to doubt they would choose this route — it would admit they were incompetent to approve the ETH futures ETF + more bad arguments in court + angering all crypto holders (especially those trapped in Grayscale) + BlackRock getting involved in a heated election that could have a major impact on Gensler’s future career path.

$ETH All reasons for rejection essentially require the view that Gensler is stupid. He may have ill will towards encryption concepts and dislike them, but he is not stupid.

I personally think that the Ethereum ETF will be approved, but definitely not in the first half of the year. The specific forecast will be released in TG. #HotTrends #ETF

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