There have been few updates recently, but I haven’t been idle, sorting out market information for the next step 🏊♂️
1. Overall environment:
1. Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 2007 and announced the cancellation of YCC, which had a certain impact on market confidence. However, by continuing to purchase government bonds at roughly the same amount as before, this policy currently has little impact on the Japanese economy and will not affect the global economy too much (Japan’s stock market reform is remarkable). The currency circle is currently part of the U.S. dollar system. , but also depends on the U.S. economy;
2. Views of various parties in the U.S. economy: 🇺🇸
a. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. economy has achieved a soft landing and we plan to take off;
b. The Federal Reserve, interest rates in this cycle have peaked, and it is appropriate to start cutting interest rates this year. In the dot plot, there were 9 members within two cuts, and 10 members more than twice. Inflation has eased, and what we are most concerned about is employment;
c. The market predicts that the interest rate cut will be postponed to June at the earliest;
d. Institutional analysis shows that although inflation in the United States is high, the reason for the good economy is "strong consumption power", there are hidden dangers in "commercial real estate and banking industries", and "inflation relief" is due to the recovery of productivity and supply;
e. Conspiracy theorists, many countries’ economies have not yet exploded, and those that have exploded have started to cut interest rates. The current data in the United States are all revised.
3. Internal situation: #BTC
a. After entering the meme craze, the market’s 7-day moving average technically returns to the sage’s time for adjustment. I personally don’t see the market going bad;
b. The strength of BlackRock ETF has declined, and Ether has been somewhat fudged;
c. In the mid-term, most forecasts will see deep adjustments in May and June, citing the need for the Fed to cut interest rates and start a bull market;
Wait a minute, I won’t summarize it anymore.
Recent personal operations (according to Twitter policy on March 15):
1. Bitcoin ecology participates in 4 projects;
2. DappRollup participated in 2 projects;
3. The launch platform participates in two projects, one AI+Depin (current price profit of 200%) and one Bitcoin L2 (current price loss of 40%);
4. A new meme with story potential. I played with BOME and doubled the output. Twitter did not call for orders, fearing that many people would be trapped; (if you are interested, you can read my previous article on how to speculate on meme tweets)
5. On March 19th, DCA bought the bottom, part of the cake was exchanged for copycats, and the capital was retained and the profits were exchanged on the 21st;
6. Large amounts of money are spent on RuneStone, doubling the capital;
7. You don’t need to do it by yourself when brushing hair. Your friends can operate it after writing the tutorial.
Highlights in April: 🔥
a. There is a high probability of a positive line in March. Bitcoin has posted 7 consecutive positives, creating history (if I remember correctly). Will there be another positive line in April?
Personally, I feel that before the interest rate cut (most likely in June) Bitcoin will fluctuate significantly, focusing on the employment situation in the United States;
We maintain our previous judgment, do not cut interest rates, and do not have a super bull market;
When exactly do you squat? I believe no one can give the answer yet.
b. Replenish the track (Eigenlayer and a group of younger brothers);
c. Continue to mine the Bitcoin ecosystem;
d. High-performance public chain;
e. Hong Kong concept;
f. Launch platform (focus on it and strive for hundreds of times of profits);
