#何时开启主升浪
BI circle story
time of day
The halving of the pie is expected to occur between April 16 and 20 this year.
This halving will reduce the total issuance of the pie from 900 pieces per day (annual issuance rate 1.8%) to 450 pieces per day (annual issuance rate 0.9%) with an annual output of 164,250 pieces (specific figures are based on actual hash rate)
It has always been said that the halving of the pie will lead to a big bull market in the currency circle. Taking history as a guide, there have been only three halving experiences in the past. To be honest, it does seem a bit imprecise to determine the market through only three halvings. But the reduction of the pie Half of the potential significance, I personally think, is greater than the actual significance, which is to increase the market's attention to the uniqueness of the pie: a solid, deflationary supply plan, an epoch-making product that attempts to fight traditional finance.
Convenient location
The Fed is about to end its rate hike cycle
Powell has also repeatedly hinted that there will be three interest rate cuts in 2024. Currently, U.S. money market funds still have $6 trillion in funds to face the upcoming interest rate cuts. We just think there will be a lot of spare capital that can enter this market this year.
people and
Big pie spot ETF (passed)
This may be the reason why the pie has been growing rapidly since January.
U.S. spot ETFs have attracted a net inflow of US$39.6 billion in the first two months, with total assets under management reaching US$55 billion. The inflow of big-pie ETFs is expected to be gradual and continue to absorb most of the supply.
And there are three points to note here:
First, most U.S. spot ETFs are purchased through p2p transactions and do not flow into exchanges, so sometimes the Bi price reaction is a little lagging, and it may be in a lagging state now.
Second, the cumulative net growth of the pie held by these ETFs (180,000 pieces) is nearly three times the supply of 55,000 pieces produced by miners, and miners are greedy and unwilling to sell at current prices.
third. Now the stock of all exchanges in the entire network has reached its lowest level in 6 years.
In fact, ETFs are always in a state of accumulating funds. When to distribute them is to wait for the right time and place.
Therefore, the three prerequisites of Daniel are indispensable.
Therefore, the real main rise has not yet come. If you increase your position on dips, don't be shaken off by the current market.
The above are some personal opinions. Do you decide whether my analysis is reasonable?
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