#BTC #TrendingTopic #Bear Plan for Flat Bull Trap
We've held inside the range of the dramatic 1 hour candle for a while now.
Earlier I was quite concerned as a short about a butterfly forming, spiking out my stops above the high and then reversing but as time has passed I think that less likely. The clean W structure is broken by the long flat range.
At this point I feel the best plan is to assume we're in a flat bull trap which can be a strong break. Makes it worth holding shorts while in this range. However, if we break above it's best to exit shorts. Even if wanting to remain bearish it'd be likely the smarter option would be get out and wait to fade a retest of the high.
We'd be looking at our first target area somewhere around 56K and be more interested in looking for buy signals with tight stops around the 53K area.
If the first swing hits, I'd consider this might be a really important break but even if it is, I think it's very likely we have some sort of bull trap before further downside.
The first drop can also be made in a bull move. One of the reasons I like to plan the buy levels off a drop here is so I can get long and then short against my position. Trail my buy stops to be taken out in a reversal but hopefully if my short stops are going to hit it just runs through and I stay in the buy.
If this first drop swing hits and we fail to make a new high I think there's a really good case to be made for this being a failure of the uptrend.
Did the BTC uptrend fail in 2022?
