Bitcoin rose from US$51,000 to US$64,000 in just five days. This speed of increase not only depressed the short-term friends, but even profit-making investors were worried about whether there would be a deep correction. It’s no wonder that there are a lot of bearish comments in the market, and it is indeed rising very fast.
Starting from US$51,500 and reaching US$64,000, it can be clearly seen that the open interest is actually very small, and yesterday's downward trend also corresponds to the weak support, so the current situation has turned into an increase and triggered panic. .
The data truly reflects that once it rose above $60,000, a large number of early position holders chose to leave the market because they were worried about a deeper correction. Even before the last cycle, which had been dormant for a long time, BTC began to move, and even more so. Forget about those investors who started bargain hunting at $16,000.
Someone asked me if I could go short. Although I don’t go short, I still want to know if I should run some spot stocks or prepare some funds to buy the bottom.
我也很难回答。因为现在的美国人真的是疯狂的，昨天跌破59,000美元的时候，美国投资者反而是创出了 IBIT 历史最高的买入量，昨天越跌，美国的投资者越是买。
Although there was a lot of selling pressure, they were all bought one after another and withdrawn from the exchange. This was even when there was a problem with Coinbase. I don’t know when Americans will buy enough. I still feel that , it is safest to hold the spot.
Is the halving a good thing or a bad thing?
Judging from the market after the previous rounds of halving, the crypto bull market is not entirely due to the halving itself. It mainly comes from the explosion of the concept of digital gold, the explosion of blockchain smart contracts, and the implementation of DeFi applications. Different logics supported the previous rounds of bull markets. . The future itself is full of variables. When Bitcoin halved in previous years, it did not mean that good news would come immediately. On the contrary, in many cases, the market still fell before and after the halving. The Bitcoin halving can only be said to be an important trigger for the big market, but it cannot be regarded as a factor that directly brings about the bull market.
Whether Bitcoin can bring about big market trends after the halving, at least these variables need to be taken into consideration:
Variable 1: Reduced miner rewards and rising production costs
This is also the reason why JPMorgan analysts predicted at the beginning that the price will plummet to 42,000 after the halving. To put it simply, after the halving, the Bitcoin block reward will be directly reduced from 6.25 to 3.125. In the absence of a breakthrough upgrade of the computing power chip, the cost for miners to produce Bitcoin will indeed rise significantly, according to JPMorgan Chase analysis The analyst believes that the rise in production costs will have a negative impact on its prices.
In fact, in every halving cycle, some people jump out and say that halving will cause a large number of miners to increase their costs and withdraw computing power. This will affect the stability of the Bitcoin network and even bring serious consequences of "sudden death". However, the previous halving cycles have As a result, it was even more fun to "bounce".
Although the fee income brought by miners and the Bitcoin ecosystem may have been ignored, according to on-chain data, the proportion of fee income in miners' income in the past three months has been declining, and could be as high as 40% during the inscription boom. Now it is generally between 5% and 8%. If the Bitcoin ecosystem cannot continue to be hot and the price of Bitcoin itself cannot continue to rise, then the issue of miners' reduced income is indeed worth thinking about.
Variable 2: The rise of BTC ecosystem
The bottom-up Bitcoin ecological development model is unexpected by many people, but no matter what, it has given a new pair of wings to the digital gold Bitcoin, and people should spare no effort to dig deeper into the value behind it. , maybe there is a bigger gold mine under the water.
Variable 3: Global economic recession, US dollar does not cut interest rates
Spot ETFs only open an entrance, and funds must flow in to be useful. Therefore, the real benefit lies in the "water release" of the U.S. dollar this year. Only then can the value of this super entrance of ETFs be reflected. When expectations brought about by Bitcoin are weak, funds flowing into spot ETFs may also flow away at any time. If the U.S. stock market encounters a waterloo and a bottomless "stock market crash" occurs, will funds be the first to withdraw from Bitcoin spot ETFs?
Variable 4: Bitcoin begins to replace gold’s hedging function?
From the perspective of another hedging function of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is no longer what it used to be. Also driven by spot ETFs, Bitcoin, which has become a global mainstream asset, will gradually reduce volatility and highlight its "digital value." The hedging properties of gold. You must know that when the economy is in recession and the stock market is down, people usually choose some safe-haven assets such as "gold" and its derivatives to hedge risks. Now there is an additional option, will funds flow in different directions? What about Bitcoin ETFs?
Recently, analysis pointed out that the large inflow of funds received after the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF seems to have been at the expense of the outflow of funds from the gold ETF. Investors redeemed $858 million from gold ETFs in the first week of February, taking gold outflows to $3.2 billion through last week.
Variable 5: Law failure, Bitcoin halving potential and declining influence
There is such a logic: when everyone believes that it is about to happen, the market will often go in the opposite direction, and most people will be harvested by capital.
In the past, the stock market had a law of "five failures, six failures, and seven turnarounds." This was a stock market legend in the Hong Kong stock market from the 1980s to the 1990s. That is, the stock market would start to fall every May, and it would fall again in June. It will plummet, but by July, the stock market will come back to life.
Since this "prophecy" or "law" took effect every time, in the mid-to-late 1990s, some people began to use various methods to "prevent" and "countermeasure" this phenomenon. After some operations, the ups and downs cycle ended. Keep appearing early and even lose reference value.
When the Bitcoin block reward is halved in each round of the ladder, the halving amount is also significantly reduced, which means that the steps and intensity are getting smaller and smaller. This mechanism will help stabilize the network and prices in the later period, but subsequent reductions will It is possible that it will no longer have the potential energy and substantive influence of the previous halving. It will become more of a "anniversary". The next step really depends on the "Bitcoin ecology".
Although some variables may not look optimistic, and some variables are difficult to distinguish between long and short, we hope that they will tend to the good side in the end, and when the trend is formed, everything will move along it.
summary
Bitcoin's halving may never have been the direct cause of the bull market, but that everything is ready and all it takes is the "east wind" from the east wind. The market has never been a place to judge right from wrong or to be rational. It is obviously not important whether the cyclical theory is a desperate matter, because there is a strong demand and logic behind it.
In 2024, although the variables are mixed, there are many narrative combinations that capital can play, including the superposition of multiple logics such as halving + ETF inflow + Bitcoin ecology + U.S. dollar interest rate cut. Price growth will solve all problems. Under this background, the periodic theory may have to be "pretended" again.
What I want to say to everyone is to hold the chips in your hands. History tells us that only by holding them can we obtain the greatest benefits.
It’s March, and everyone has seen the market in February. I believe that the market in March will not be bad. With the support of the Bitcoin halving market hype, there is a high probability that it will continue to explode. However, the emphasis here is on the short-term pull. If it is too high, you must pay attention to the risks, especially for contract users. Don't fall before the bull market. I often remind everyone that as long as the bullets are there, there will be countless opportunities for you to get rich in the bull market.
I am Brother Ming. I have been in the trading market for more than ten years. Welcome to flirt!
