What is the relationship between $troll holder and $troll price? Last month, a friend asked in the group. He didn’t want to give a simple answer. The data was not sufficient at that time. Now we have recorded the relationship between $troll holder and $troll price from 01/20 to 02/27. The price trend chart is shown in Figure 1, and Figure 2 is the combined graph of the two. This question can be answered initially. Single holder, holder trend is rising, $troll adoption rate is increasing. Looking at price alone, $troll entered its peak period on January 20, then declined and fluctuated widely, and the market entered a confusing stage.
So, who decides which of the two? Should the price change come first and then the holder, or should the holder change first and then the price? It's a bit like a chicken-and-egg situation. However, looking at the stages, it is not complicated. Basically, it can be summed up as "retail investors chase the rise and kill the fall, and diamond hands are as steady as an old dog." Figure 3: Logarithmic coordinates of price. In the figure, the red box corresponds to price⬇️, and the blue box corresponds to price⬆️. The most worthy of analysis are the first three boxes.
In the beginning (2023/04/20-2023/10/14), there were very few Token holders (it should be airdrop distribution, community friends are welcome to provide details). At this time, the popularity of $troll was extremely low, a large number of holders were liquidated, and $troll was close to returning. Zero, a complete washout. In this stage, the holder determines the price; in the second stage (2023/10/14-2024/01/17), in this stage, Musk's "taking office" as CTO (2024/01/09) is a one-man show, and the price is rapid. Rise + Musk's influence, holders came after hearing the news, and promoted the price increase. This stage is divided into two parts. The first part is that the price brings the holder, and the second part is that the holder promotes the price.
The third phase (2024/01/17-2024/02/03) is the most interesting, spanning two weeks. Referring to Figure 2, it can basically be divided into two parts. The first part is that price attracts holders. Although the price fluctuates and falls in this part, holders increase rapidly, taking on the selling pressure from diamond hands to a certain extent. As $troll decreases, it drops from the highest of 0.0{7}14 to 01/ At 0.0{7}51 of 25, market panic spread rapidly, and holders took a sharp turn. Although there was a rebound in the middle, it was not able to turn the tide.
After that, on 01/31, as Musk suddenly "stepped down" as CTO, the market panic reached its extreme, and the decline of holders accelerated. The first group of holders who came in cut their flesh and left the market, bringing $troll into the abyss.I would like to talk a little more about this part. If $troll does not have fundamental support at this time, it will basically go back to zero. However, after 02/03, after a wide range of shocks at the bottom, it began a journey to regain lost ground. I thought it would fluctuate at the bottom for two months, but in fact, I lost most of my down payment in less than two weeks. You are not afraid of falling, but you are afraid of not being able to stand up after falling.
After 2024/02/03, there is basically no need to pay too much attention to the changes in price and holder. Basically, at the micro level, it conforms to the law of "retail investors chase the rise and kill the fall, and diamond hands are as steady as old dogs." This is the truth about investment in the financial market. Retail investors lose money. Light, old dog makes money. In the more macro financial market, of course, this law is also consistent. If the relationship between the price and holder of BTC is studied in the long term, I am afraid this law will be more obvious. Therefore, this enlightenment to me is, don’t chase the rise and kill the fall, and don’t be a leek.
Since the establishment of $troll position in mid-January, this blog has basically followed this investment logic. During this period, less than 40 billion Tokens were sold at the position of 0.0{7}45. However, later after Musk "stepped down" as CTO, all the tokens were sold. The position was added back, increasing the total position by 50%. Looking back at the start of this super bull market for BTC in October last year, this blog has basically followed this investment logic. If you are optimistic about a project, you will always get the target position. The five-fold return of SOL is the best witness. The new super cycle is really not $troll.
